Exclusive: Elon Musk group's playbook in Wisconsin's court race
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Elon Musk has spent millions on the race for a single seat on Wisconsin's Supreme Court. Now the billionaire's political group is offering the GOP candidate free advice: Get Trumpier.
Why it matters: The Wisconsin contest — a nationalized proxy fight between the political parties and billionaire benefactors — is a referendum on President Trump.
It's the first major election of Trump's second term, and could decide the balance of power on the swing state's highest court.
- For Democrats, the April 1 election quickly has become a way to harness anger at the president.
- For Republicans, it's a test of trying to turn out Trump voters when he's not on the ballot.
The court election will determine the tilt of an ideologically divided bench — in a purple state where state-level decisions carry national implications for abortion rights, legislative redistricting and election laws.
- If Republican Brad Schimel wins, the seven-member court will have a conservative majority until at least 2026. If Democrat Susan Crawford wins, the court will have a liberal majority until at least 2028. Liberals have held the majority on the Wisconsin court since 2023.
By the numbers: Schimel is trailing Crawford by 48%-43%, according to a polling memo conducted for Musk's political committee, Building America's Future.
- That's an improvement for Schimel, who was 13 points behind Crawford two weeks ago.
The big picture: Trump isn't on the ballot — but he's a major issue, if not the issue. The survey, conducted by pollster Ryan Tyson, indicates Schimel has an enthusiasm problem with Trump voters and needs to turn them out.
- The electorate also looks less Trumpy than in 2024. The poll models partisan turnout that looks a lot more like 2023, the last major state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, which Democrats won.
Zoom in: Schimel needs to tout his pro-Trump bona fides and lean into messaging that paints the Democrat as soft on crime, Andrew Romeo, the group's senior adviser, wrote in the memo.
- "Closing the enthusiasm gap with the base will be critical for Schimel down the stretch," Romeo wrote.
- "The Schimel campaign is best positioned to remind the 14% of Trump voters who aren't currently voting for him that he is a strong conservative and Trump ally."
What Democrats are saying: Mike Tate, former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, said Republicans are running different messaging tests on different types of Trump voters to figure out how to motivate them when he's not running.
- "MAGA only wins elections when Trump is on the ballot — and then only 2/3 times," Tate told Axios via email. "If Republicans can't fix that, then this Trump insanity ends."
What's next: Besides Musk's group, a political nonprofit, the Wisconsin race has also drawn big-money contributions to Democrats — including a $1 million donation to the party from progressive benefactor George Soros and $500,000 from billionaire Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.
- By Election Day on April 1, the opposing sides may spend as much as $100 million combined, a record.
The data in the memo was provided by pollster Ryan Tyson, who surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters by phone. The error margin for each survey is ±4 percentage points.
Editor's note: This story was corrected to reflect that Musk's Building America's Future group is 501(c)(4) political nonprofit group (not a PAC).
