The GOP's big voter problem
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Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
The verdict is in: President Donald Trump's voters are lively when he's running for the White House. They're downright lethargic when he's not.
Why it matters: This is not just the assessment of Democrats. It's coming straight from the vice president and leaders of the MAGA movement. And it can have massive implications for the results of key gubernatorial races this year and for next year's midterms.
Catch up quick: Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, lost by 10 points in a 50-50 state. Trump endorsed Brad Schimel, and Elon Musk bankrolled millions of dollars in ads and events, swooping into Wisconsin the weekend before Election Day to juice turnout.
- While Republicans won two House special elections in Florida by about 15 points, those were drops from over 30-point margins in the same districts just last November.
Zoom out: Low-propensity, working-class voters helped fuel Trump's 2024 win.
- But MAGA luminaries are fretting that those same voters only turn out when Trump's name is on the ballot, making the GOP base less intimidating in off-year races and putting narrow congressional majorities at risk.
Vice President Vance wrote on X: "The political problem on the Republican side of the aisle is how to get our base to vote in off-cycle elections. We've seen the establishment (finally) accept Donald Trump's leadership of the Republican Party. Now it's time to try to actually learn from his political success."
- The well-wired Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA, the MAGA youth network — said on his show that many "lower propensity voters, the people that showed up in massive numbers for President Trump ... decided to embrace the couch instead of the ballot" on Tuesday. "I want to examine what we need to do as a party and a movement to motivate people," Kirk added. "President Trump was able to motivate people."
- Steve Bannon said on his "War Room" podcast: "President Trump's name is not going to be on the ballot. It is about MAGA. It is about the direction of the country. ... You can't do TV ads and get these people to the polls, it just doesn't work. We have to put our shoulder to the wheel."
Between the lines: To avoid becoming a quadrennially successful party, conversations are breaking out about the need to address the GOP's turnout problem.
- "Democrats have performed much better the last few years in special elections, generally over-performing — but it ended up not spilling over to 2024," GOP pollster Robert Blizzard said.
- "Republicans will need to energize the low-propensity, Trump base to be successful in holding the majority in 2026. A tweet or single rally likely won't be enough, it will take significant, sustained interaction with voters."
- When asked what that interaction looks like, Blizzard responded, "To be determined."
