Axios AM

March 31, 2022
Happy Thursday. Tomorrow is April Fool's Day. Today's Smart Brevity™ count: 1,401 words ... 5 mins. Edited by Zachary Basu.
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1 big thing: Putin's blind spot
Satellite photo shows apparent shelling damage to an International Committee of the Red Cross warehouse in Mariupol, Ukraine. Photo: Planet Labs PBC via AP
U.S. and U.K. officials say intelligence shows Vladimir Putin has been "misinformed" by his own advisers about how badly he's doing in Ukraine — in part due to "yes-men ... too afraid to tell him the truth."
- Why it matters: Western allies have repeatedly declassified and publicized sensitive intelligence about Russia as a tool to undermine Putin's strategy, Axios national security reporter Zachary Basu writes.
The latest example comes as Russia claims to be pulling back from its offensive near Kyiv, which ended in failure due to stiff Ukrainian resistance.
- "[I]t increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation," Jeremy Fleming, the head of the U.K.'s GCHQ spy service, said in a major speech in Australia today.
- "[H]is Plan B has been more barbarity against civilians and cities."
"We've seen Russian soldiers — short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft," Fleming claimed.
- "And even though we believe Putin's advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what's going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime," he added.
White House communications director Kate Bedingfield confirmed to reporters: "We have information that Putin felt misled by the Russian military, which has resulted in persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership."
- Releasing this information "contributes to an understanding that this has been a strategic failure for Russia," Bedingfield said when asked why the U.S. was declassifying this intelligence now.
Between the lines: There is probably "no bigger insult" than calling Putin, a former KGB officer, "misinformed" about the state of his own military, notes Russia expert Dmitri Alperovitch.
2. 🇺🇦 Ukrainian lawmakers fly to D.C.

Five Ukrainian women, all members of parliament, left Kyiv this week for Washington to ask for more help in person — before heading back into danger, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
- Why it matters: With most men ages 18-60 restricted from leaving the country due to military service requirements, Ukrainian women are playing an outsized role in shuttle diplomacy during the war.
"We are mothers. We are MPs. We are volunteers. We are coordinators. And we are fighters," Ukrainian member of parliament Maria Ionova (center in photo above) said at a briefing for journalists yesterday at the German Marshall Fund, after meetings with lawmakers and Pentagon and State Department officials.
- "We do not have time to be diplomatic and must be very direct with you."
The visitors were joined on Capitol Hill by Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova.
- The delegation also plans a stop in Canada before returning to Ukraine.
The delegation's in-person visit to Capitol Hill served as an in-person twist on the powerful video appeals by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
- He's been credited with unlocking new sanctions and aid commitments with his emotional addresses to Western leaders.
- Some of the women in the delegation represent Zelensky's party; others do not. All are strongly pro-Western.
Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (right in photo above) said she's cried once since the war began — on the plane from Warsaw to D.C. — because she was distressed about leaving the fight: "We want to be there with our people."
- On their first morning in Washington, Klympush-Tsintsadze said that she and other members of the delegation began "trembling" when they heard a fire engine pass. It reminded them of the air raid sirens back home.
3. ⛽ Biden's new bid to lower pump prices

President Biden is preparing to order the release of up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the nation's strategic petroleum reserve, in a bid to control spiking gas prices, AP reports.
- The overall release could be as much as 180 million barrels, according to people familiar with the plan, per Bloomberg. Oil dropped by $5 a barrel in a matter of minutes after the report.
🎤 Biden speaks today at 1:30 p.m. ET on the administration's actions "to reduce the impact of Putin's price hike on energy prices and lower gas prices at the pump for American families."
State of play: High oil prices haven't coaxed more production, creating a challenge for Biden, AP explains.
- The president has seen his popularity sink as inflation reached a 40-year high in February, and the cost of petroleum and gasoline climbed after Russia invaded Ukraine.
- Biden's approval was 40% — the lowest of his presidency — in an NBC News poll out this week.
Under the hood: Oil producers have focused on the needs of investors, according to a survey released last week by the Dallas Fed.
- About 59% of executives surveyed said investor pressure to preserve "capital discipline" amid high prices was the reason they weren't pumping more. Fewer than 10% blamed government regulation.
Context: This is the latest of several attempts to try and tame prices via the SPR, Axios' Ben Geman notes.
- The Biden administration announced the release of 50 million barrels in coordination with other countries in November.
- After the Ukraine war began, the U.S. and 30 other countries agreed to an additional release of 60 million barrels from reserves, with half of the total coming from the U.S.
The Energy Department, which manages the reserve, says it holds more than 568 million barrels of oil.
4. Mapped: America under $15/hour

Axios Local newsletters today are spotlighting this map, based on Oxfam America data aimed at showing where workers would benefit from a raise in the federal minimum wage, which has been $7.25/hour for 13 years.
- Interactive version, showing the rank for each state.
5. 🥑 Weekly avocado cuts risk of heart disease

"A 30-year study of more than 110,000 health professionals found that participants who ate at least two servings of avocado a week had a lower risk of cardiovascular disease compared to those who rarely ate avocados," the American Heart Association announced yesterday.
- Why it matters: Avocados contain dietary fiber and unsaturated fats, especially monounsaturated fat (healthy fats).
One serving equaled half of an avocado, or a half cup of avocado.
6. 🎥 Academy probes slap

Above: In Berlin yesterday, a mural by street artist Eme Freethinker depicts "The Slap."
The Academy announced disciplinary proceedings against Will Smith "for violations of the Academy's Standards of Conduct, including inappropriate physical contact, abusive or threatening behavior, and compromising the integrity of the Academy."
- "At the next board meeting on April 18, the Academy may take any disciplinary action, which may include suspension, expulsion, or other sanctions."
"Mr. Smith's actions ... were a deeply shocking, traumatic event to witness in-person and on television," the statement adds.
- "While we would like to clarify that Mr. Smith was asked to leave the ceremony and refused, we also recognize we could have handled the situation differently."
7. 🗳️ 2024 watch: Nikki Haley on women leaders
Cover: St. Martin’s Press
Nikki Haley — former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., and South Carolina governor — on Oct. 4 will publish a book, "If You Want Something Done...," aimed at inspiring the next generation of female leaders.
- Haley hit the N.Y. Times bestseller list with an earlier memoir, "With All Due Respect." The new book "celebrates some of the world's most iconic and inspirational women leaders."
The title is based on a quote by Margaret Thatcher: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."
8. 🏎️ 1 fun thing: Formula 1 on Vegas Strip next year

Formula 1 announced a Las Vegas Grand Prix, beginning in 2023, on a Saturday night in November (exact date TBA) — with the Strip's neon lights as a backdrop, and the track sweeping past legendary casinos.
- This'll be the third F1 race in the U.S., after Miami and Austin.
Formula 1, owned by Liberty Media, signed an initial three-year contract for the race. Partners include Live Nation, Caesars, MGM Resorts, Wynn and The Venetian.

The track runs 3.8 miles, with top speeds estimated to be over 212 mph.
- There'll be 50 race laps, with three main straights and 14 corners, including a high-speed cornering sequence, F1 said.
Liberty Media president and CEO Greg Maffei called the race "the perfect marriage of speed and glamour."
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