FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" that while President Trump's reelection bid is "clearly in trouble" due to his dismal coronavirus approval ratings and polling in swing states, he does not believe the president's "fate is sealed."

Why it matters: There are 100 days until the election and the warning signs are flashing bright red for Trump. Eight in 10 Americans said in an AP-NORC poll released Sunday that the country is heading in the wrong direction — more than at any other point during Trump's presidency.

The big picture: That same poll found that just 32% support Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including only 68% of Republicans. But as Silver points out, a major breakthrough in the vaccine race or a sudden economic recovery could change the situation.

What he's saying: "We found historically that when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict," Silver said.

  • "So while he's clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed. A lot could change in the next 100 days — things could get worse, still, for the president.
  • "But a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive."

Go deeper: The blue wave threatening to crush Trump's re-election keeps growing

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Updated 12 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump vows to block stimulus funding for mail-in voting and USPS

President Trump on Thursday told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo that Democratic demands to fund mail-in voting and the U.S. Postal Service in ongoing coronavirus stimulus negotiations were a non-starter.

Why it matters: Trump directly linked Democrats' desired $3.6 billion for mail-in voting and $25 billion for the USPS to his continued baseless claims that increased mail-in voting will lead to widespread voter fraud.

Jun 21, 2020 - World

Exclusive: Trump held off on Xinjiang sanctions for China trade deal

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

In an Oval Office interview on Friday afternoon, President Trump told me that he held off on imposing Treasury sanctions against Chinese officials involved with the Xinjiang mass detention camps because doing so would have interfered with his trade deal with Beijing.

Driving the news: Asked why he hadn't yet enacted Treasury sanctions against Chinese Communist Party officials or entities tied to the camps where the Chinese government detains Uighurs and other Muslim minorities, Trump replied, "Well, we were in the middle of a major trade deal."

Dems raise alarm over changes to Postal Service's election mail processing practices

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy walking through the Capitol on August 5. Photo: Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

House and Senate Democrats wrote to Postmaster General Louis DeJoy on Wednesday, urging him not to issue new directives for handling election mail ahead of November's general election.

Why it matters: Democrats fear changes to election mail processing practices "will cause further delays to election mail that will disenfranchise voters and put significant financial pressure on election jurisdictions," per a letter written by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) and signed by the 47-member Democratic caucus.