Jul 18, 2022 - Real Estate

Tampa's real estate market is cooling, slightly

Illustration of a downward trend line over a house
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

With pending home sales down year-over-year and asking price drops on the rise, Tampa's real estate market is showing early signs of slowing down. But home prices are still up 27.6% from June 2021.

Why it matters: We keep hearing about a market crash, but so far, local data doesn't support that claim.

Yes, but: Monthly data show early signs of a cooler market, if even the slightest.

Data: Redfin; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

What's happening: From June 2021 to June 2022, new listings were up 4.2% and pending sales were down 1.4%.

  • In June 2022, 42.1% of listings dropped their asking price — an increase of 12.4 percentage points from June 2021.
  • More buyers are holding off as home ownership becomes too expensive.
  • This comes after mortgage rates surpassed 5% for the first time in 10 years.

Zoom out: Nationally, mortgage applications were down 24%, and, on average, 6.5% of sellers dropped their asking price each week in June, per Redfin's latest market update.

  • In June, national pending home sales were down 13% from this time last year, the largest decline since May 2020, Redfin's report stated.

Be smart: Inventory is still critically low overall which continues to push home prices up.

What we're watching: New listings and pending sales. If more listings flood the market this summer and buyers don't bite, that's when we would start to see more power shift into buyers' hands.

The bottom line: We're not seeing major changes in Tampa just yet, but we're starting to see early signs of a cooling market.

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