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The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D) is edging closer, according to a new analysis by the national Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: Democrats are banking on a Hail Mary win in Texas to keep the Senate majority if Sen. Jon Tester (D) loses the Montana race, now rated "lean Republican" in the report.

At stake are the confirmation of judges, the ability to approve or reject bills out of the House and control of investigative hearings.

Driving the news: The Texas race is now "lean Republican," after being rated as "likely Republican" for most of the 2024 election cycle, according to the report released this week.

What they're saying: The "Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted on X.

Reality check: Cruz losing in Texas would be a far bigger shock than Tester losing in Montana.

Cruz leads Allred by 5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.

Tester trails GOP challenger Tim Sheehy by nearly 6 percentage points in the RCP polling average.

Flashback: In 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.

Catch up quick: While Texas remains a GOP stronghold, it has become more diverse — something Cruz seems to be responding to as he "rebrands" himself by highlighting his bipartisan achievements, such as supporting trade-promoting bridges in the Rio Grande Valley, passing the FAA Reauthorization Act and advocating for the protection of in-vitro fertilization.

Allred has targeted moderate and independent voters by supporting oil and gas jobs, advocating incremental health care reforms and promoting a tough border position.

The latest: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) joined Rep. Greg Casar, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and O'Rourke this week in rallies aimed at mobilizing young voters along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin.

Sanders said young people will make the difference in Texas becoming a progressive state, according to the Texas Tribune.

"It will make all the difference in the world if Colin is elected to the Senate," Sanders said before the rally at Texas State University. "He'll give us a chance to control the Senate and begin to pass legislation that benefits working people."

Allred is campaigning across the state this week, with a stop Thursday in San Antonio for the Veterans for Allred Kickoff and Phonebank. Meanwhile, Cruz is launching the first week of his bus tour Friday. It does not currently include a San Antonio stop.

The other side: Cruz recently toured San Antonio, Houston and North Texas He announced he'd been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for his pro-small business legislation during the trip.

"If Democrats take the Senate, they will destroy the filibuster to ram through their radical left-wing agenda. It would be the end of America as we know it," Cruz posted on X on Monday.

What's next: Cruz and Allred will face off in their first debate on Oct. 15 at 7pm.

Texas Senate race shifts to "lean Republican"

Sen. Cruz looks down while standing at a podium with a GOP stop and repeat in the background.

Sen. Ted Cruz at a July press conference in Houston. Photo: Jon Shapley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Texas Senate race" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2024/09/25/senate-democrats-florida-rick-scott-mucarsel-powell" data-vars-content-id="dc1f135b-0985-4044-8a58-781f67a0c62e" data-vars-headline="Texas Senate race shifts to &quot;lean Republican&quot;" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/09/25/senate-democrats-florida-rick-scott-mucarsel-powell" target="_self">Texas Senate race</a> between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Colin Allred" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/06/texas-democratic-primary-colin-allred-ted-cruz" data-vars-content-id="dc1f135b-0985-4044-8a58-781f67a0c62e" data-vars-headline="Texas Senate race shifts to &quot;lean Republican&quot;" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/03/06/texas-democratic-primary-colin-allred-ted-cruz" target="_self">Colin Allred</a> (D) is edging closer, according to a new analysis by the national Cook Political Report.Why it matters: Democrats are banking on a Hail Mary win in Texas to keep the Senate majority if Sen. Jon Tester (D) loses the Montana race, now rated &quot;lean Republican&quot; in the report.

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