What to know about early voting turnout in Texas so far
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In-person early voting turnout in several large Texas counties is surpassing turnout during the first week of voting in 2018, when the state last saw a high-profile Senate race.
Why it matters: It's hard to draw hints from early voting as to which way the election will tilt.
- Polls have suggested close statewide races, starting with the race for U.S. Senate between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, and for governor, pitting Republican incumbent Greg Abbott against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Flashback: Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by 2.6 percentage points in 2018, the closest a Democrat has come to winning a statewide election since the 1990s.
- O'Rourke appeared to benefit from unusually high turnout for a Texas midterm election.
State of play: Democratic enthusiasm suggested by polling is showing up at the ballot box in some key counties, according to voting data collected by the Texas Secretary of State's Office.
- Turnout in Dallas (23%) and Travis (25%) counties, with rich troves of Democratic votes, is outpacing turnout in key counties with a history of voting Republican, including Montgomery (18%), outside Houston, and two counties where President Trump is scheduled to appear Tuesday: Nueces (18%) and Lubbock (20%).
- Turnout in Harris and Bexar counties was 20% and 17% respectively.
Caveat: The state's figures might not be fully updated yet in some cases.
What they're saying: If turnout in Republican counties lags turnout in Democratic strongholds by midweek, "then that's where the warning bells will be going off within the Abbott campaign in particular," Mark Jones, political science professor at Rice University, tells Axios.
- Abbott has the strongest statewide campaign infrastructure and resources, and is best prepared to mobilize Republican voters across Texas, Jones says.
The intrigue: Tarrant County, which has been a battleground in recent elections and is considered a key county once again, has seen high turnout (24%) so far.
- But experts caution that doesn't necessarily signal support for any one candidate or party.
- The county is worth watching on election night, however. Jon Taylor, political science department chair at UT San Antonio, tells Axios if the county goes blue, it would be "all over for Republicans."
The bottom line: "You're seeing energy, you're seeing a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats," Taylor says. "But at the same time … there's a lot of unknowns here."