What Texas has to lose as student visa denials climb
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U.S. student visa denials hit a decade high in 2025, contributing to enrollment declines that could cost Texas universities an estimated $133.2 million annually, per a recent report.
Why it matters: Fewer international students can also mean a weaker pipeline of global talent fueling long-term U.S. economic growth.
By the numbers: Visa refusal rates rose to 35% in 2025 — the highest in a decade — after years of relative stability, per Shorelight, a company that helps international students apply to U.S. schools.
- For students from parts of Africa and South Asia, denial rates were as high as 84% in 2025.
Zoom in: Texas is among the states with the largest projected tuition losses tied to declining international enrollment, according to Shorelight's analysis.
- International students typically pay out-of-state tuition — often about three times higher than in-state rates, according to College Board data.
Between the lines: The data aligns with what NAFSA: Association of International Educators is seeing nationally. New international student enrollment fell 17% nationally last fall, Rachel Banks, senior director for public policy and legislative strategy at NAFSA, tells Axios.
- In Texas, that translated to a $65 million economic loss tied to fewer incoming students — reflecting a slowdown in new arrivals, not total international student contributions.
Reality check: San Antonio lags other Texas metros in attracting international students. That means less immediate financial exposure, but also less access to a shrinking pipeline.
- During the 2024-2025 academic year, UT Austin generated more than $242 million annually from international students, compared to about $41 million at UT San Antonio.
State of play: Visa processing is strained by competing priorities, including expanded travel bans and the State Department's focus on World Cup travel.
- "There is no exception made for people coming to study. So we're concerned about the fallout that that will have," Banks says.
The bottom line: The stakes extend beyond tuition and affect the United States' ability to compete for global talent that supports long-term economic growth.
- "It's really disappointing that we're not embracing the international talent we do attract and finding ways to keep them coming," Banks says. "Given how much they contribute to our economy and to innovation, the current policy direction is very short-sighted."