What experts are watching in San Antonio's open mayoral election
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James Aldrete (left) and Kelton Morgan (right) at a live recording of the "Beyond the Bite" podcast on Thursday. Photo: Kin Man Hui, courtesy of Eddie Aldrete
With one election past us, another is gaining steam in San Antonio as at least 15 candidates are now vying for limited attention in the May mayoral battle.
Why it matters: Next year's mayoral election will be the first in 16 years without an incumbent on the ballot, offering a fresh opportunity to transform city policy — and a longer, four-year term to get started on it.
Driving the news: A new episode of "Beyond the Bite," out Tuesday, focuses on the race. The podcast convenes conversations at the intersection of politics, policy and business in San Antonio.
- Host Eddie Aldrete spoke with Democratic political consultant James Aldrete (his brother) and Republican consultant Kelton Morgan.
Here are some key takeaways from James Aldrete and Morgan, neither of whom is working for a current candidate.
It's all about fundraising. Morgan and James Aldrete agree viable candidates will need at least $400,000 to get in front of voters, and Morgan says they need up to $500,000.
- Morgan isn't positive current councilmembers in the running will reach that threshold.
It's an insider-versus-outsider race, but the consultants disagree on who has the advantage.
- Morgan says outsiders — like tech entrepreneur Beto Altamirano and former Texas Secretary of State Rolando Pablos — have an upper hand, in part because support among current councilmembers will be split.
- James Aldrete says residents just gave a vote of confidence to the current City Council by approving higher salaries and longer terms in this month's city charter propositions.
Turnout will be low. The May 3 election will take place on the last Saturday of Fiesta, which runs from April 24 to May 4 next year. Fiesta also partly overlaps with the early voting period.
- Yes, but: If the city asks voters to fund a potential new Spurs arena on the same ballot, that could drive more turnout, James Aldrete says.
Politics will play a role. While the mayor is a nonpartisan position, candidates can't ignore politics, James Aldrete says.
- In addition to the state legislative session beginning in January, President-elect Trump will be on people's minds one way or another.
- "To think you're going to be a mayoral candidate and not take positions on that is fairly naive," James Aldrete says.
The city's growth created changes. District 1, which includes downtown, is home to more registered voters following urban growth and development in the area, Morgan says.
What's next: Both Morgan and James Aldrete agree that the city should expect a runoff. With so many likely candidates on the ballot, votes will be split, making it hard for any one candidate to reach more than 50%.
The bottom line: Listen to the full podcast episode on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.