Texas Senate race shifts to "lean Republican"
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Sen. Ted Cruz at a July press conference in Houston. Photo: Jon Shapley/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images
The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D) is edging closer, according to a new analysis by the national Cook Political Report.
Why it matters: Democrats are banking on a Hail Mary win in Texas to keep the Senate majority if Sen. Jon Tester (D) loses the Montana race, now rated "lean Republican" in the report.
- At stake are the confirmation of judges, the ability to approve or reject bills out of the House and control of investigative hearings.
Driving the news: The Texas race is now "lean Republican," after being rated as "likely Republican" for most of the 2024 election cycle, according to the report released this week.
What they're saying: The "Lone Star state still remains tough for a Democrat, but Allred's fundraising/heavy ad spending, plus Cruz on defense on abortion + Cancun has tightened contest," Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor posted on X.
Reality check: Cruz losing in Texas would be a far bigger shock than Tester losing in Montana.
- Cruz leads Allred by 5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
- Tester trails GOP challenger Tim Sheehy by nearly 6 percentage points in the RCP polling average.
Flashback: In 2018, Cruz beat then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke after an enormously high-profile midterm fight by 2.6% — or about 200,000 votes.
Catch up quick: While Texas remains a GOP stronghold, it has become more diverse — something Cruz seems to be responding to as he "rebrands" himself by highlighting his bipartisan achievements, such as supporting trade-promoting bridges in the Rio Grande Valley, passing the FAA Reauthorization Act and advocating for the protection of in-vitro fertilization.
- Allred has targeted moderate and independent voters by supporting oil and gas jobs, advocating incremental health care reforms and promoting a tough border position.
The latest: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) joined Rep. Greg Casar, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and O'Rourke this week in rallies aimed at mobilizing young voters along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin.
- Sanders said young people will make the difference in Texas becoming a progressive state, according to the Texas Tribune.
- "It will make all the difference in the world if Colin is elected to the Senate," Sanders said before the rally at Texas State University. "He'll give us a chance to control the Senate and begin to pass legislation that benefits working people."
- Allred is campaigning across the state this week, with a stop Thursday in San Antonio for the Veterans for Allred Kickoff and Phonebank. Meanwhile, Cruz is launching the first week of his bus tour Friday. It does not currently include a San Antonio stop.
The other side: Cruz recently toured San Antonio, Houston and North Texas He announced he'd been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for his pro-small business legislation during the trip.
- "If Democrats take the Senate, they will destroy the filibuster to ram through their radical left-wing agenda. It would be the end of America as we know it," Cruz posted on X on Monday.
What's next: Cruz and Allred will face off in their first debate on Oct. 15 at 7pm.