Richmond's blue shift is looking more like the new normal
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Democrats largely held onto their 2025 gains across the Richmond region in Tuesday's midterms, while Republicans maintained some traditional strongholds, per an Axios review of preliminary election results.
Why it matters: While much of the nation saw a "blue tsunami," Richmond got more of a spritz.
The latest: Two competitive Richmond-area congressional races remained uncalled Wednesday — with Democrat Shannon Taylor leading in the 1st District and Republican John McGuire ahead in the 5th.
- Taylor, ahead with 51% of the vote, declared victory, though Republican incumbent Rob Wittman hadn't conceded.
- McGuire, who also declared victory, leads with 50% in the 5th. Democrat challenger Tom Perriello also hasn't conceded, saying the race is too close to call.
State of play: Democratic congressional candidates improved their vote shares across Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield and even traditionally red Hanover compared with 2024, per preliminary election results.
- Yes, but: Compared with Gov. Spanberger's performance in the same localities in last year's governor's race, voting patterns were largely unchanged.
- And Richmond-area turnout this year was virtually identical to 2025, ranging from 54% in Richmond to 67% in Hanover.
By the numbers: In the closely watched 1st Congressional District, which includes parts of Henrico, Chesterfield and Hanover, Democrats gained significant ground compared with 2024.
- Chesterfield: Taylor carried the recently purple county's portion of the district by nearly 12 percentage points, reversing Wittman's 3-point advantage in 2024.
- Henrico: Taylor won by more than 25 points, nearly triple the Democratic margin in 2024.
- Hanover: Wittman still carried the county's portion of the district, but his margin shrank from nearly 32 points in 2024 to about 18.5 points this year.
The intrigue: Nearly half of voters in deep-red Hanover — 49.63% — supported Virginia's constitutional amendment protecting reproductive rights, even as the county backed Republican congressional candidates by wide margins.
- The amendment fell just 446 votes short of passing in Hanover.
- By comparison, 53% of Hanover residents rejected the amendment protecting same-sex marriage and 59% opposed the one restoring voting rights to people convicted of felonies who've completed their sentences.
Zoom out: All three amendments passed with at least 58% support in Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield.
- The reproductive rights measure drew the most support in all four localities.
Meanwhile: Democrats also improved their performance in the region's two other congressional districts.
- In the 4th: Rep. Jennifer McClellan expanded her support across Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield compared with 2024.
- In the 5th: Perriello won 34.9% of the vote in Hanover's portion of the district, up 4 points from 2024 but slightly below Spanberger's 2025 performance. Republican incumbent McGuire still led comfortably.
What they're saying: In a call with reporters Wednesday, Spanberger said Democratic gains Tuesday suggest Virginians are "quite pleased with the direction that we are taking Virginia," per the Times-Dispatch.
The bottom line: Blue RVA may be the new normal.