Education Brief
Virginia's future college student pool is shrinking
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America's future college pipeline is growing in the South, but Virginia is bucking the trend.
Why it matters: Colleges in shrinking markets will face a fierce fight for students, while those in growing regions will have to adapt to serve an expanding, more diverse student body.
- The nation's student pipeline is also becoming less white, more Latino, more first-generation and more cost-conscious.
By the numbers: The number of U.S. high school graduates is projected to peak in 2025 and then fall 13% by 2041, per the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).
- The decline is especially steep in major college markets: California is projected to lose 29% of its high school graduates, New York 27% and Pennsylvania 17%.
- The South is projected to grow 3%.
Zoom in: Virginia, however, is projected to lose 6% of its high school graduates over that same period.
- In its most recent enrollment projections, state higher-ed officials noted that Virginia's high school graduate count is projected to decline through 2033, tick back up in 2034, then continue falling.
What they're saying: "The schools in the South do tend to have sort of healthier enrollment trends right now," Andrew Gillen, a Cato Institute research fellow, told Axios.
- But regional universities are far more exposed to what happens nearby: "You're really concerned about the local demographic," Gillen said.
Between the lines: Brand-name schools can recruit nationally. Regional universities and less-selective private colleges are much more dependent on the shrinking pool of students around them.
What we're watching: Colleges in declining markets may cut jobs, humanities programs and low-enrollment majors to stay afloat.