Bettors grow more confident Virginia redistricting vote will pass

The big picture: Prediction markets on three major platforms — PredictIt, Polymarket and Kalshi — gave the referendum an 80% to 85% chance of passing as of Sunday night.

• On PredictIt, odds have jumped nearly 10 points in in the past week.

The intrigue: Markets have swung with the referendum's turbulent legal fight.

• Odds dropped in February when a lower court blocked the vote, then rebounded each time the Virginia Supreme Court allowed it to proceed.

By the numbers: As of Sunday, bettors have wagered over $420,000 across Kalshi and Polymarket. PredictIt's volume is unclear.

• Meanwhile, Republican-leaning localities continue to vote at higher rates, per the Virginia Public Access Project.
• In Mathews County, 20% of its registered voters have cast ballots.
• In Democratic strongholds like Richmond and Norfolk, only about 5% have — though that's up from the 2.5% in Richmond last week.

Reality check: Prediction markets reflect where the money is flowing at a point in time, not probable outcomes.

What we're watching: Whether those odds shift as Election Day approaches on April 21.

Go deeper:

• Virginia redistricting vote starts as planned
• New Virginia map splits Richmond, weakens GOP districts