Nearly 400K Virginians brace for health care premium hikes
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Open enrollment for Virginia's health insurance marketplace begins Saturday, and nearly 400,000 people could see their coverage costs soar next year as federal aid that kept premiums low is set to expire.
Why it matters: The State Corporation Commission says the projected hikes could push hundreds of thousands of people into the uninsured pool.
Catch up quick: The Affordable Care Act tax credits — federal subsidies that lower monthly costs for people with marketplace coverage — are a key sticking point in the government shutdown.
- Democrats have tied extending those subsidies — which expanded during the pandemic and expire at the end of the year — to budget negotiations, a standoff that helped trigger the shutdown when Republicans disagreed.
- GOP leaders have said they won't budge until Democrats back their funding bill.
Driving the news: Virginia's marketplace, partly run by the SCC, began mailing renewal notices last week showing premium increases ranging from 4% to 40%, per an agency spokesperson.
- Those higher premiums reflect insurers' new 2026 rates.
- But if Congress doesn't extend the enhanced tax credits, out-of-pocket costs could be two to more than five times higher, depending on income and where a person lives.
By the numbers: A 60-year-old couple in Henrico or Chesterfield currently paying about $802 per month could see their monthly bill increase by nearly $1,000 without the credits, per SCC estimates released earlier this month.
- A family of four in those counties making about $96,000 could pay $300 or more each month.
- Mama J's owner, Lester Johnson, told the Washington Post he expects his bill to more than double to over $1,400 to continue coverage for his family, which includes his 8-year-old daughter, Lena.
Between the lines: The expiring subsidies could trigger the loss of thousands of jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding in Virginia, per an analysis from the Commonwealth Fund.
- The timing also collides with expiring food benefits.
What we're watching: Whether the government shutdown affects next week's gubernatorial election like it did in 2013 — when GOP fallout helped Democrat Terry McAuliffe win.
Go deeper: Virginians still waiting on renewal notices can use KFF's subsidy calculator to estimate how much monthly costs could increase without the ACA tax credits.