3 reasons Virginia's House races matter more than you may think
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The first day of early voting at Henrico's Western Government Center in September. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The fight for statewide offices may be dominating headlines, but Virginia's House of Delegates races are some of the most consequential contests in the country.
Why it matters: With all 100 House seats up for grabs, the outcome may determine the state's political direction and just how much power the next governor has in pushing their policy agenda.
- The outcome will also be a preview of what both parties can expect nationally heading into the 2026 midterms, since Virginia is the first temperature check of voter sentiment post-presidential election.
Zoom in: Here are three reasons why the House races are ones to watch — especially in Richmond.
1: The majority hangs by a thread
Democrats hold a slim majority in the House (51-49), which means a flip of just one or two seats could shift control.
- Republicans want to avoid a repeat of 2017, when Democrats flipped 15 Republican-held House seats the year after President Trump's first win.
- That year, Republicans retained control of the House after the GOP candidate's name was picked out of a bowl to break a tie (yes, this really happened).
2: Control decides Virginia's policy agenda
The party that ends up controlling the House will determine whether Virginians vote on constitutional amendments to guarantee abortion access and marriage equality next year.
- Democrats pushed forward the amendment process this year, but per Virginia law, they'll have to do it again next session before heading to voters.
- Republicans have blocked similar measures in the past.
The intrigue: If Democrats retain control and GOP gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears wins, she could face the same gridlock Gov. Glenn Youngkin encountered with a fully Democratic legislature.
- A GOP House would run into a Democratic Senate, which has prided itself on being a "brick wall" against Republicans.
3: Richmond suburbs are the battleground
Three of the 10 House races considered competitive by the Virginia Public Access Project are in the Richmond area.
- And all are Republican-held districts that voted for Democrat Kamala Harris last year, per VPAP.
- These areas, once solidly Republican, have become toss-ups in recent years as population growth and shifting demographics have changed.
Zoom in: The tightest House contests are Districts 75 (Chesterfield) and 82 (Petersburg), per VPAP. The third tightest is District 57 (Henrico and Goochland).
- District 75 — featuring a rematch between Republican Del. Carrie Coyner and Democrat Lindsey Dougherty — has received added attention in recent weeks, since the texts that shook the attorney general election were sent to Coyner.
The bottom line: Virginia's political tug-of-war may come down to Richmond.