Why your grocery bill in Virginia might keep climbing

• These costs are "just the tip of the iceberg," Montgomery tells Axios.

By the numbers: Ground beef — the second-most consumed meat nationwide — averaged $6.12 a pound in June, up nearly 12% from a year ago, according to federal data released last week.

• It's the first time that ground beef has been above $6 since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection began in the 1980s, per the Joint Economic Committee's minority arm.
• Meanwhile, Virginians are eating more beef now (59.1 pounds) than they were last year (58.9).

Zoom out: The beef supply chain is being strained by a multi-year drought and high consumer demand while farmers face higher production expenses.

• Pittsylvania County cow producer Hunter Johnson told WSET the costs of expenses like pesticides and fertilizers have increased 30-35%.
• And the Virginia Cooperative Commission says cattle supply is the lowest it's been since 2014.

The other side: The spike in prices for "conventional sources of beef" could be a good thing for local butcher shops like Belmont Butchery, owner Tanya Cauthen tells Axios.

• "It actually makes local meat more competitive as a result because there's less of a price difference," she says.

Yes, but: Cauthen has noticed that customers are buying smaller portions and asking more about alternative or cheaper steak cuts.

• Her pro tip on maintaining a family food budget: "Talk to your butcher about what you're trying to make, because they will probably have a suggestion that you would've never thought of."

What we're watching: Whether the incoming U.S. tariff on Brazil, which accounts for nearly a quarter of all U.S. beef imports, will have an impact on Richmond-area restaurants.

Go deeper: Beef prices keep going up, and there's no end in sight