Richmond likely can't absorb a flood of fired federal workers
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Richmond has more jobs available now than it did before the pandemic, but the types of job openings have changed considerably since 2020.
Why it matters: Job posting data shows there are not enough "knowledge worker" roles in Richmond, or in Northern Virginia, to support the estimated flood of fired federal workers who could soon be looking for a job, Indeed.com's economist tells Axios.
The big picture: Last week, the Trump administration told federal agencies to prepare for a "significant reduction" in full-time positions in the coming weeks, on top of the thousands of federal workers already fired, Axios' Emily Peck reports.
By the numbers: Richmond has about 20% more job postings today than it did before the pandemic, Cory Stahle, an economist with Indeed.com's Hiring Lab data center, tells Axios.
- That's a better pandemic jobs recovery than the U.S. as a whole, which has about 10% more job openings today than it did in February 2020, per Indeed's data.
Context: Unsurprisingly, Covid shook up the labor market. Job postings plunged for a few months in 2020 before they started climbing again.
- By 2022, job openings surpassed pre-pandemic levels, before cooling slightly. Richmond's have been stable since last summer.
Yes, but: In Richmond, and much of the U.S., job postings for tech and "knowledge workers" have been lagging while openings for entry-level, food, restaurant and retail employment are "thriving," Stahle says.
- Knowledge worker jobs are usually white-collar, critical thinking skills roles.
- These are likely the ones that laid-off federal workers will be seeking because that's what around 92% of federal workers currently do, according to the Pew Research Center.
Meanwhile, postings for software developer jobs, which Indeed uses as a benchmark for tech jobs since developer is a "pretty ubiquitous job title" in the industry, have dropped from 3% of all Richmond job postings in February 2020 to 2% today, Stahle tells Axios.
- Remote job postings are also slowing.
Zoom in: Richmond's top 5 job postings by category are ...
- Installation & Maintenance
- Food Preparation & Service
- Retail
- Management roles
- Nursing
Worth noting: In February 2020, four of Richmond's top five job openings categories were the same. Installation & Maintenance replaced Sales Jobs in the top five.
- Management roles include restaurant manager postings, per an Axios review.
Threat level: While there are more open positions in Richmond post-pandemic, there are 11.8% fewer open jobs in the D.C. area, including Northern Virginia, where the vast majority of federal workers live, Stahle tells Axios.
Zoom out: Virginia's overall job market has softened slightly since last year, but there are still roughly 250,000 open positions right now, Virginia Secretary of Labor G. 'Bryan' Slater tells Axios.
- That includes 33,000 computer and math postings and 28,000 in health care.
What they're saying: "The federal government's loss is Virginia's gain. We want to help anyone unfortunate enough to lose their job find a new one."
- He added that the state's new "Virginia Has Jobs" resource page is a great way for job seekers to find new opportunities.
The bottom line: The pool of open jobs is flat or shrinking, while the pool of people looking for a job is increasing ... and expected to keep on rising.