Sep 19, 2024 - Politics
Virginia hasn't gone for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years
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The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Virginia was in 2004 with George W. Bush's re-election.
Why it matters: It doesn't look good for Donald Trump.
The big picture: When it comes to presidents, the Commonwealth has been a reliably Democratic stronghold since 2008.
- That's not expected to change since multiple recent polls show Vice President Kamala Harris having a roughly 10-point lead on the former president.
Yes, but: A Democrat winning the presidency could help Virginia Republicans in 2025, when residents will vote for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
- That's because Virginia has a track record of electing a governor who is the opposite political party of the sitting president, per the state elections database.
- There's only been one time in the past 50 years when that wasn't true: The year after Barack Obama's re-election, former Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe won against Republican Ken Cuccinelli.
Plus: In eight of the 12 elections since 1976, Virginians have elected a governor, attorney general and lieutenant governor who are all in the same party.
- The latest was in 2021, when Republicans Gov. Youngkin, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and AG Jason Miyares all won statewide office a year after Democrat Joe Biden won the presidential election.
Go deeper: A Virginia voter's guide to the Nov. 5 presidential election