Richmond's weather forecast is usually correct 4 days out
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Richmonders should consider themselves lucky when it comes to the accuracy of our weather forecast: They tend to be correct four days in advance.
- That's according to a Washington Post analysis of government weather data, shared publicly for the first time.
Why it matters: Studies show accurate weather forecasts can save lives, especially during extreme heat.
The big picture: The Washington Post got its hands on a year's worth of forecasts and forecast errors from the The National Weather Service spanning April 2023 through March 2024, the Post reports.
- It crunched the data to see how often the forecast was correct within 3°F of the actual temperature that day.
What they found: How accurate the weather forecast is depends on where you live.
- Coastal regions tend to have more accurate forecasts because of the way the ocean regulates temperature; southwest desert areas see better forecast, too because of the arid conditions.
- The whole middle of the country, however, lacks those factors and therefore has the least predictable forecasts in the country.
Zoom in: Most of the East Coast, including Virginia, sees accurate forecasts three to four days in advance.
- The western part of the country has it even better: their forecasts are accurate five to six days out.
- The great plains, however, only see accurate forecasts two days in advance max.
- And Southern Florida gets the most reliably accurate forecasts in the nation — they're "spot-on even a week out," the Post writes.
Yes, but: Everyone in the country is getting better forecasts today than they were even 30 years ago.
- "Today's 7-day forecast is as good as the 3-day forecasts of the '90s," the Post notes.
Go deeper with the Post's interactive map