North Carolina early voting surges ahead of midterms

• The patterns could signal heightened voter engagement, but they don't necessarily predict overall turnout or reveal which party will benefit.

The big picture: More than 54 million Americans cast early votes, according to a tracker run by the University of Florida's Election Lab.

• In the 2022 midterms, about 46 million people voted during the early voting period.

Between the lines: University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald says overall turnout could surpass 2022 and potentially rival the 2018 "blue wave" — which saw the highest participation rate since 1914, according to Pew Research.

• Charles Stewart, director of MIT's Election Data and Science Lab, is more cautious than McDonald. He believes turnout could rival 2022 but says voters may simply be shifting away from Election Day voting.

What they're saying: In states that provide voter data by race, early voting participation is particularly high among voters of color, McDonald tells Axios.

• "We can see high levels of engagement among African Americans above 2018 and 2022. And more importantly, Hispanics are through the roof. I mean, the numbers for Hispanics are eye-popping."
• McDonald sees Democrats shifting from mail voting toward early in-person voting, potentially because of Trump's repeated unfounded claims of widespread mail-ballot fraud and concerns about U.S. Postal Service disruptions.