Why Raleigh dodged the worst of the winter storm
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Last weekend's winter storm fell short of dire forecasts in Raleigh, sparing the region from the widespread ice damage and power outages many feared.
Why it matters: Dodging the worst-case scenario this time may undercut urgency ahead of the next winter storm — when the region might not be as lucky.
State of play: Central North Carolina wound up with far more sleet than freezing rain Saturday and Sunday, even though the National Weather Service and TV meteorologists had forecast the opposite.
- NWS meteorologist James Danco, based in Raleigh, tells Axios it is extremely difficult to predict atmospheric temperatures with enough precision to know whether sleet or freezing rain will be falling at any given time, and that this was a "very unusual event."
How it works: It all depends on how much warm air is between the clouds and the ground.
- Sleet forms when snowflakes pass only briefly through warm air, turning to slush that refreezes before reaching the ground. It's the precipitation that bounces off the ground and resembles snow as it accumulates.
- Freezing rain happens when snowflakes completely thaw midair but can't refreeze before impact due to a thick layer of warm air.
- As freezing rain hits the surface, droplets instantly glaze roads, power lines and trees with ice — and even a quarter-inch can be catastrophic.
Zoom in: Danco tells Axios that in central North Carolina, "a lot of the raindrops had time to refreeze" into sleet during this storm.
- That's because cold air remained stubbornly wedged near the surface throughout the weekend, preventing freezing rain from taking over, according to Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist at the N.C. State Climate Office.
By the numbers: Sleet and snow totals in the Triangle ranged from 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches, according to NWS reports. Most places saw 0.25 inches of ice or less.
- The official NWS observations, taken at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, recorded 0.6 inches of sleet and snow, plus 0.28 inches of ice.
What they're saying: Davis says he understands people may view the forecast as a failure, "especially if they had gone out to prepare and buy groceries and get a generator." Faulty weather apps that spent much of the week calling for a foot of snow didn't help either.
- But, he says, the forecast "actually adjusted really well throughout the week" and that "it could have been a lot worse, just based on what the storm did in other areas" of the Southeast.
What's next: Roads will remain dangerous throughout the week.
- Bitter cold air has poured in from the west, and it's expected to repeatedly refreeze the snowmelt overnight, forecasters say.
- Another storm is possible this weekend, though it's too far out for forecasters to know much.