What's next for the Triangle's real estate market in 2026
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After years of sharp price increases following the pandemic, the Triangle's real estate market appears to have settled into a new equilibrium.
Why it matters: For the past three years, median Triangle home prices have hovered around $425,000, after interest rates lifted off historic lows and homes stopped attracting the multiple offers that drove up prices in the frenzied parts of the early 2020s.
State of play: Homes in the most desirable locations still attract multiple offers, local real estate professionals say. But overall, the number of homes for sale has grown significantly in the past year, and the median home now takes more than a month to sell.
What they're saying: "We're finally in a balanced market, and it's been a long time, probably 2019, since we were there," Stacey Anfindsen, an appraiser who writes Triangle Area Residential Realty market reports, told Axios.
- "The seller probably isn't a fan of it, but they've had the upper hand for six years, which is unprecedented," he added.
What's next: Local real estate watchers are waiting to see if home sales pick up steam this year if there's a meaningful fall in mortgage rates.
- A year ago, mortgage rates were hovering around 7%, according to Freddie Mac. Now, 30-year mortgage rates are around 6.15%, with the National Association of Realtors [NAR] forecasting that they could fall to around 6% this year.
Between the lines: That decline would make the average monthly payment on a home cheaper than last year, all things being equal. Combined with rising wages, homes will begin to feel more affordable than they have in recent years.
- The combination should lead to more sales, said Matt Fowler, CEO of Doorify MLS, the agency formerly known as Triangle MLS. But he warned that any uptick in unemployment this year would dampen demand.
- A decline in average rents in the Triangle could also provide less urgency for renters to jump into the housing market.
The big picture: National experts are also pointing to Raleigh's housing market as trending in the right direction, with the NAR naming it one of 10 housing hot spots in the country.
- NAR noted that a 30-year mortgage rate of 6% would lead to 27,000 additional households in Raleigh qualifying financially for a median-priced home.
- Income growth in the Raleigh metro area was 6.3% higher in 2025 than the previous year, according to the NAR, and job growth was up 1.3%.
- The Triangle will also likely continue to be an attractive market for those moving within the country, fueling more demand for housing.
Yes, but: Danielle Clermont, CEO of the Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors, told the Raleigh Chamber that the Raleigh area's challenge will be how to build affordably in the places people want to live.
- "Where is the momentum going? Follow the moving trucks and follow rising rooftops, and that's where the growth is going," she said. "That's easy to see in Raleigh, [it's] the outskirts."
- Fowler agreed that, for many buyers, it still requires traveling far away from job centers to find affordable prices.
- Harnett County, he noted, has become one of the region's hottest real estate markets, with workers trading shorter commutes for cheaper homes.