Democrats and Republicans line up candidates for competitive North Carolina midterms

State of play: Despite Republicans redrawing congressional districts to their advantage, Clayton believes recent Democratic wins in other parts of the country, gains in the suburbs in this year's local elections, and the presence of former Gov. Roy Cooper on the ballot for U.S. Senate point to her party being especially competitive in 2026.

• "We need to make sure that we keep up the optimism that people are feeling right now," she said.

Between the lines: That will require Democrats, however, to start winning back many rural voters who have left the party. They'll be talking with voters about Republican cuts to food stamps and Medicaid benefits, she says.

• "Rural North Carolina is a long game," she said. "It's one where we have to rebuild trust when a party has destroyed a brand and has mislabeled us for so long."

Yes, but: Jason Simmons, chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, said Republicans will perform better in next year's races, where turnout will be higher.

• "When you talk about lower turnout, historically, it did favor Republicans, because Democrats had a significant voter registration advantage," Simmons said. "But as you've seen over the last couple of years, Republicans have gained momentum on voter registration, while Democrats are hemorrhaging."
• Simmons says he believes Republican momentum will also return if the economy grows stronger and prices come down next year.
• That's a big if — but Simmons believes Trump's policies will contribute to that trend and that many voters will start noticing new federal tax cuts.

The big picture: Simmons said Republicans want to focus their messaging around the economy, public safety and education.

Zoom in: Clayton sees several potentially close races for state lawmakers next year, in addition to statewide races for a spot on the N.C. Supreme Court and U.S. Senate.

• Democrats will invest in ousting Wake County's two Republican representatives in the General Assembly, she said, after November GOP losses in Wake Forest and Cary reinforced that those seats could be up for grabs.

What he's saying: Republicans are currently one vote shy of a supermajority in the N.C. House, and Simmons said he likes their chances in 2026.

• State lawmakers over the past decade "made North Carolina the greatest place to work, live and retire, because of reducing taxes, investing in the economy, investing in education and public safety," Simmons said.

The intrigue: Clayton said if there's a blue wave, U.S. Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat who often votes with Republicans, can still win North Carolina's 1st Congressional District even after Republicans made it much redder.

• "It'll be a very interesting race to watch," Simmons also said.
• With several Republicans vying to face Davis, an endorsement from President Donald Trump could prove pivotal in the primary, Simmons said, "because you still have wide support for President Trump and his policies."

Clayton says Democrats are also eyeing races in Republican-held congressional districts, like the 7th — a seat held by Rep. David Rouzer that stretches from Wilmington to Fayetteville — and the 11th, which is represented by Rep. Chuck Edwards and covers Asheville and much of the mountains.

• Worth noting: Both parties continue to blame each other for the response to Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina.

What's next: Filing is open through noon Dec. 19.