In the long list of Mark Robinson's controversial statements, 1 stands out
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North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson arrives to speak at last month's Republican National Convention. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's controversial statements have made him a divisive figure since he burst onto North Carolina's political scene about six years ago. But one comment that came to light in June may be turning off voters more than other past remarks, political observers tell Axios.
Driving the news: "Abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers," Robinson said in a video featured in an ad aired June 5 by his Democratic opponent in the race for governor, Attorney General Josh Stein.
- "It's about killing the child because you weren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down."
Why it matters: The 30-second spot appears to have had a near-immediate impact on Robinson's campaign, the latest polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight show, and his performance in polls has been sliding ever since. Meanwhile, both local and national Republicans have continued to voice concerns about his candidacy.
- "The 'skirt' ad has been the most effective messaging point against Robinson to date," said longtime Republican political operative Paul Shumaker, who also served as a campaign adviser to one of Robinson's primary opponents, "because it speaks beyond the issue of abortion. It speaks to the issue of blaming women."
Zoom in: Days after the ad aired, 12 North Carolina swing voters were interviewed in our focus group with Engagious/Sago. Only three people shown a picture of Robinson could name him. (Only one could name Stein.)
- When asked what she knew about Robinson, one voter said: "I know that he thinks that if a woman can't keep her skirt on that it's her problem if she gets pregnant or needs an abortion."
- That comment of Robinson's, which originally appeared on his Facebook page, had not been reported until the ad aired, per CBS17.
Flashback: Robinson, who, along with his wife, chose abortion 30 years ago, sought to redefine his stance on abortion in an ad released earlier this month, in what appeared to be an attempt to thread the needle of appealing to more moderate voters, as well as his more conservative Republican base.
The latest: Stein is now favored to win the governor's race, per Cook Political Report, which said Tuesday it was shifting the race from toss-up to "lean Democrat."
- That change comes as polls out this week show Robinson running as much as 10 points behind Stein.
- A Republican-sponsored poll showed Stein with 47% and Robinson with 37% — 13% less than former President Donald Trump, who led Vice President Kamala Harris 50-46.
Cook Political Report also noted that polling shows non-college educated women shifting to Stein.
- "That mirrors what we have heard from both Democratic and Republican sources, who have found in focus groups that even Trump-supporting non-college women were turned off by Robinson's demeaning comments about women," the Tuesday report said, pointing specifically to the "skirt" ad.
What they're saying: "We all know these polls don't speak for everybody; they don't speak for the people," Robinson said Tuesday, per WFMY, when asked about a poll showing 50% of those surveyed viewed Robinson unfavorably.
- "The people speak on November 5th."
Reality check: We're still 68 days from Election Day, and polls done right are only a snapshot of public opinion. They can't predict what will happen on Election Day.
- Plus, the last two Republicans who ran for governor, former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, outperformed polling by around 7% in their respective elections, according to a memo written by Robinson's pollster and obtained by Axios.
- McCrory, the pollster notes, was polling an average of 7.3% behind Gov. Roy Cooper in 2016. He lost by 0.2%.
- Forest polled around 12% behind Cooper and lost by 4.5% in 2020.
- "Mark Robinson polling better than McCrory in 2016 and Forest in 2020 means he is on track to win," the memo said.
Also worth noting: Stein's lead in some polls is not as big as Cooper's lead in 2020, WFAE noted.
The intrigue: Earlier this month, former Acting Chief of Staff for Trump Mick Mulvaney said, "Trump is being weighed down by a very unpopular Republican candidate for governor" in a state where the former president won by just over a percentage point in 2020.
- Polling doesn't show that at the moment, Shumaker told Axios, because a connection has to be drawn between Trump and Robinson. That hasn't happened in ads yet.
Yes, but: Robinson said in a fundraising email sent earlier this month that "if nothing changes on the fundraising front, not only do we risk losing this race, but the White House too."
Between the lines: Stein's campaign sought to define Robinson before Stein defined himself with voters, and they did so by using Robinson as the chief spokesperson against himself, Shumaker told Axios.
- "Swing voters are sophisticated voters," Shumaker said. "They think both sides are trying to trick them. The fact that Robinson is the chief spokesperson in their attacks validates their ads."