May 7, 2024 - News

The states Trump and Biden are obsessed with

A map shows the swing states that may decide the 2024 presidential election. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia are highlighted in purple.
Data: Cook Political Report. Map: Axios Visuals

North Carolina is one of seven swing states that both the Biden and Trump campaigns are obsessed with in the upcoming presidential election this fall.

Why it matters: The Biden-Trump election likely will be decided by roughly 6% of swing voters in these seven states, top strategists in both parties tell Axios' co-founders Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen.

State of play: Each side will spend billions to reach those voters over the next six months in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

  • In North Carolina, Biden's campaign has opened 10 offices in big cities and suburban counties in hopes of driving up turnout from Democratic voters or convincing some Republicans — like the 250,000 Nikki Haley voters in the Republican primary — to vote for Biden.

Between the lines: The Trump campaign is talking to that 6% of persuadable voters when it hammers immigration, crime and inflation.

  • Biden is aiming at the 6% when he emphasizes abortion, democracy and stability.

By the numbers: Biden's winning margin in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020 totaled just over 300,000 votes out of 158 million cast for president nationwide.

  • The Washington Post found that the winner would have changed by flipping just over 81,000 votes in four states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia).

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