Democrats again seek elusive control of Legislature
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
The Arizona House of Representatives. Photo: Olivier Touron/AFP via Getty Images
Arizona Democrats have gotten used to saying "This could be our year" as they try to win control of the Legislature — and hopes are high that 2026 could finally be their year.
Why it matters: With Gov. Katie Hobbs favored to win reelection next week, control of the Legislature will likely determine whether Arizona has a split government or one-party Democratic control.
Zoom in: Only a small handful of Arizona's 30 legislative districts are competitive, and those races will decide control of the House and Senate, with outside groups from both parties spending millions to sway the results.
Between the lines: "Democrats need to basically run a perfect game to win it," pollster Paul Bentz, of the firm HighGround, tells Axios. "But they have a shot."
- Independent voters are overwhelmingly favoring Democrats in top-of-the-ticket races, and that should trickle down to legislative races as well, Bentz says, though every race and district is different.
- The more likely scenario is that one of the chambers ends up with split control, he says.
What they're saying: "This appears to be a stronger current for Republicans to swim against than even the really good years, like 2018," says Democratic consultant DJ Quinlan, who thinks his party is favored to win the House and Senate.
- "We've seen this before," says Republican consultant and House candidate George Khalaf. "Looking at everything that I'm looking at, I still believe Republicans hold both chambers."
The districts that will decide control of the Legislature are:
District 2: Democrats are looking to hold their one House seat in the north Phoenix district — they aren't running a second House candidate — and hope to unseat Republican Sen. Shawnna Bolick (R-Phoenix).
District 4: This district that includes Paradise Valley, the Biltmore area and parts of Arcadia, north Phoenix and Scottsdale is one of the most hotly contested, and Republicans currently hold all three seats.
District 9: Based in west Mesa, it's the lone competitive district where Democrats hold all the cards, and Republicans are hoping to snag one a House seat.
District 13: Republicans are defending three open seats in this Chandler district, but the area has become more purple in recent years, and Democrats recently held one of the House seats.
District 17: Rep. Kevin Volk (D-Tucson) won a foothold for the Democrats in this conservative north Tucson area district two years ago, and his party is contesting all three seats now.
District 23: This southern Arizona district, which runs from Yuma to Tucson and juts into the southwestern Valley, is strongly Democratic, but Rep. Michele Peña (R-Yuma) has won two terms there and is seeking a third.
Flashback: Republicans ended decades of near-total Democratic control of the Legislature when they won both chambers in 1966.
- The GOP has controlled the House for an unbroken stretch since then and has lost the Senate only a few times, most recently from 2001 to 2002 when there was a 15-15 split.