Democrats eye strongly Republican 2nd Congressional District
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Democrat Jonathan Nez, left, and Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane. Photos: Courtesy of Nez for Congress and Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg via Getty Images
An unexpectedly competitive race in a congressional district that President Trump easily won by double digits two years ago could spell trouble as Republicans look to fend off a Democratic wave.
Why it matters: Significant spending by both parties in the 2nd Congressional District, which covers most of rural, northern Arizona and extends into northern Pinal County, suggests that even districts normally considered to be safe Republican territory could be up for grabs.
State of play: The race pits Republican incumbent Eli Crane against Democrat Jonathan Nez.
- Crane is a veteran and founder and CEO of Bottle Breacher, a company that makes bottle openers from bullets. He's a staunch Trump ally and House Freedom Caucus member who helped oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in 2023.
- Nez is a former Navajo Nation president and council delegate. He would be the first Native American to represent Arizona in Congress if elected.
- It's a rematch of 2024, when Crane handily defeated Nez in his first reelection campaign.
The intrigue: The Cook Political Report last week shifted its assessment of CD2 from being a "likely Republican" win to "lean Republican."
Zoom in: Both sides are blanketing the airwaves with television ads in the final weeks before the election.
- Democratic outside groups have spent millions boosting Nez and attacking Crane, including House Majority PAC, House Democrats' main super PAC.
- The Trump-linked No Going Back PAC has reported spending more than $3 million in the district, and other Republican groups are aiding Crane as well.
- What little polling has been released publicly suggests a tight race.
Yes, but: As national Democrats shift money around to prioritize the most winnable races, CD2 is among the districts where House Majority PAC has scaled back its spending recently.
- House Majority PAC is still on pace to spend around $2 million in the race through Election Day, spokesperson CJ Warnke tells Axios.
What they're saying: The big difference between this year and 2024 is Trump's historically low popularity, "and the elected leaders who have supported him are not as popular as they were a couple years ago," Nez tells Axios.
- He notes that national Democrats gave him little support two years ago.
- "There's a lot of frustration from folks," he says. "They don't like the way the country is going, especially the economy," he said.
The other side: "Jonathan Nez has been a politician for over 20 years. Navajo voters fired him in 2022, and all of AZ-02 rejected him in 2024. Rural Arizonans are sick of career politicians and their broken promises," Crane campaign spokesperson Greg Smith said in an email to Axios, citing Nez's defeat in his 2022 reelection.
The bottom line: Even in a year when the national climate heavily favors Democrats, it would be a major upset for Republicans to lose CD2, and Nez still has a steep uphill climb.