Kelly's Senate reelection plans are up in air
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U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly speaks at a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on April 13, 2026. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly is eyeing the 2028 presidential race, but he also has a big decision to make: whether to seek reelection.
Why it matters: Kelly's decision will affect the plans of potential candidates for a highly competitive Senate seat on both sides of the aisle.
State of play: Kelly tells Axios that he'll make a decision about the 2028 Senate race after this year's election, same as the presidential campaign.
- "Right now … this election is the one I'm focused on. I'll make a decision about this on the other side of this election," he says.
Zoom in: Kelly could run for both, even if he's the eventual Democratic presidential nominee — presidential and vice presidential candidates are permitted to run simultaneously for another federal office in Arizona.
- Kelly won't have to file signatures to get on the ballot for a Senate reelection campaign until March 20, 2028.
The first Democratic presidential primary of 2028, in South Carolina, is scheduled for Jan. 22 and Super Tuesday will be March 7.
- That means Kelly could see how he fares in the decisive earlier primaries before making a final decision on the Senate race.
What they're saying: Kelly wouldn't say what his reelection decision might be contingent on, telling Axios, "What other people do is not going to influence what I do."
- "My decision will be what I think, first, what's in the best interest of the country, and then what's in the best interest of my family," he says.
- But, he adds, "Certainly it would make sense for me to think about the other implications of this."
The intrigue: Democrats who would only be interested in the Senate seat if it's open won't be able to launch their campaigns until he announces his plans, which would put them in a tough spot.
Yes, but: Potential Democratic candidates can still work behind the scenes to lay groundwork by building relationships and support ahead of time, former Arizona Democratic Party chair Raquel Terán tells Axios.
- "I think that's already happening," she says.
But Democratic campaign consultant Joe Wolf says that kind of early maneuvering is too risky.
- Concrete support will be hard to come by until people know Kelly's plans and word would get out quickly, he tells Axios, "and all you've done is front-run a sitting senator, which is never a place to be."
Meanwhile, Kelly's plans could influence prospective Republican candidates' decisions as well.
- There are probably potential GOP candidates who would run for an open Senate seat but wouldn't run against Kelly, who's a formidable opponent, Republican campaign consultant Matt Kenney tells Axios.
- That could be especially true for Republicans who would have to decide whether to run for reelection for offices they currently hold.
- "It will be a much more crowded race if Sen. Kelly does run for president," Kenney says.