Arizona's Prop. 144 will determine future of mail-in voting
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
A proposal on this year's ballot could dramatically change — or potentially gut — Arizona's popular vote-by-mail system.
Why it matters: The overwhelming majority of Arizonans vote early, with nearly 75% of voters casting ballots by mail in the 2024 general election, per the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
State of play: Proposition 144 would amend the Arizona Constitution to make a number of changes to state election laws and procedures, including a requirement that voters "show valid government issued proof of identity before casting a ballot in each election," regardless of how they vote.
- That means there would be a new requirement to show ID before voting by mail, as with in-person voting.
Friction point: The measure doesn't say how that would be done.
- The proposition says only that voters must show ID "as prescribed by law," leaving it to the Legislature to decide.
Threat level: Some critics warn that Prop. 144 would severely undermine mail-in voting by making it difficult or impossible to comply with the voter ID requirement.
- Prop. 144 may sound reasonable but is really a "clever attempt to trick us into surrendering or voting away one of our most fundamental rights," Tempe City Councilmember Randy Keating, who chairs the anti-Prop. 144 campaign, said during a recent debate.
- By leaving it up to a future legislature, he said, the measure "refuses to explain how voters could possibly comply with this vague rule."
- Former Republican Secretary of State Ken Bennett tells Axios that lawmakers who oppose voting by mail could intentionally make the new requirements onerous.
The other side: Greg Blackie of the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, which backs Prop. 144, said during his debate with Keating that voters could potentially show ID by including their driver's license numbers or the last four digits of their Social Security numbers with their ballot envelopes.
- He said a future system may also give voters the option of uploading their ID to an online state system.
- Blackie predicted that the Legislature would create a menu of options.
Yes, but: Former Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican, said he isn't positive that using driver's license or Social Security numbers would satisfy the requirement that mail-in voters "show" their ID.
- Former Arizona Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould, a Republican election law attorney, said that might satisfy the ID requirement, but it would depend on how the courts interpret it.
Flashback: Voters in 2022 rejected a ballot measure that would've required people to include either their state ID number or the last four digits of their Social Security numbers with their mail-in ballots.
The intrigue: It's unclear what would happen if the Legislature failed to pass a law dictating how voters could show ID each time they vote by mail.
Zoom out: Prop. 144 would also require counties to allow voters to have their early ballots tabulated at voting sites on Election Day and strengthen prohibitions against campaign spending by foreign nationals.
The bottom line: Voting by mail could look a lot different starting in 2028 if Prop. 144 passes.