The Diamondbacks enter their final week with a lot on the line
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The Diamondbacks will need big things out of Corbin Carroll in the final week of the season. Photo: Joe Buvid/Getty Images
The Diamondbacks still have a shot at making the playoffs as they enter the final week of the season, but they'll need a lot of help to secure their first postseason berth since 2023.
Why it matters: A lot rides on Arizona's final six games — possibly including the fates of manager Torey Lovullo and general manager Mike Hazen.
State of play: Entering Tuesday, the Diamondbacks are 82-74 and four games back of the Philadelphia Phillies, who occupy the final wild-card spot in the National League.
- Any combination of three Diamondbacks losses and Phillies wins will officially knock Arizona out of the playoff picture.
- The Diamondbacks will need to play near-flawless baseball this week and also hope the Phillies take a major stumble.
- "There is no tomorrow," starting pitcher Merrill Kelly tells Axios. "We have to win every day."
Catch up quick: The Diamondbacks were sitting in playoff position as recently as Sept. 8, but then lost six of their next eight games.
- If not for back-to-back wins over the New York Yankees this weekend — the first on a Pavin Smith walk-off homer, the second thanks to a go-ahead grand slam from Nolan Arenado — they might already have been eliminated.
Context: The Diamondbacks have been competitive all year, but have never quite looked like a complete team.
- Injuries have kept several stars off the field for much of the year, including ace Corbin Burnes and flame-throwing reliever Justin Martinez.
- The offense has been below-average as three players who were MVP candidates a year ago — Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte — are having comparatively pedestrian years at the plate this season.
- Marte also created a distraction last month when he failed to show up for a game without telling the team, leading to weeks of headlines.
Between the lines: The baseball analytics site FanGraphs gives the Diamondbacks only a 5.8% of making the playoffs, raising the question of what happens if they don't.
- Late-season losing skids cost Arizona playoff spots each of the last two years and nearly cost them a postseason berth in 2023.
- Yet another collapse could spell doom for Lovullo, who has been with the club 10 years but is not under contract for next season.
- There's also some heat on Hazen, who has built just two playoff teams in his decade running the club.
What they're saying: "We've won a lot of baseball games here over the past 10 years and put ourselves in a good position year after year after year to get to the big dance," Lovullo said in a press conference Sunday. "I'm proud of that, but that's never our final destination."
What's next: The Diamondbacks finish on the road against the lowly Colorado Rockies and the streaking San Diego Padres, who have won 14 of their last 16.
- The Phillies, whom Arizona needs to catch, finish against two playoff-bound teams in the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays.
The bottom line: It ain't over till it's over, but the door is almost shut.