Jay Feely's Trump endorsement could hurt him in November
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Jay Feely touted his Trump endorsement heavily in the GOP primary. Photo: Cassidy Araiza/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Jay Feely frequently touted his endorsement from President Trump during the GOP primary in Arizona's 1st Congressional District, but that could do him more harm than good as we near the general election.
Why it matters: CD1 is a swing district and a top pickup target for Democrats, and Trump's endorsement of the former NFL kicker could play a role in determining which party controls Congress for the next two years.
What they're saying: In an emailed statement, Feely tells Axios: "I'm nobody's rubber stamp. You don't have to hate your opponents to beat them, and I think we as Republicans have better ideas that win on the merits."
Catch up quick: Feely handily won the GOP primary, advertising Trump's endorsement on campaigns signs and boasting that the president would answer when he calls.
- He faces Democratic candidate Amish Shah, a former state lawmaker and emergency room doctor who lost to current Rep. David Schweikert in 2024.
By the numbers: The GOP has a registration advantage in the district, though independents make up the second-largest swath of voters.
- CD1 voted for Trump in 2024 but has also voted for Democratic Sens. Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly and Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Zoom in: "The plain fact is that Jay Feely is connected to Donald Trump," political consultant Stan Barnes tells Axios.
- Barnes and GOP consultant Barrett Marson say Feely needs to be willing to buck Trump on unpopular issues, including tariffs and the war in Iran.
- "He has to tell voters what he's going to do to fight for them," Marson says, "and, quite frankly, some of that is not necessarily President Trump's agenda."
- Feely struggled to create that distance when a primary opponent repeated a racist conspiracy theory popularized by Trump to attack Feely's humanitarian work in Haiti.
Yes, but: Feely recently acknowledged that that Joe Biden won the 2020 election after evading the question throughout the primary. He also said the Trump administration's Colorado River plan was unfair to Arizona.
- Despite his support for Trump and MAGA firebrands like Kari Lake, Feely doesn't fit into a far-right extremist box, says Republican strategist Daniel Scarpinato, who is not involved with Feely's campaign.
- "What I think wins here is to be normal," Scarpinato says, "and I think that he's presenting himself as a normal guy who's going to do normal things."
- Scarpinato and Barnes noted that CD1 voters are among the state's most engaged and that they'll be able to separate Feely from Trump — if he also separates himself.
The intrigue: Shah — whom Republicans have tried to cast as far left, despite a moderate voting record and multiple police endorsements — will also need to cement the Trump-Feely link in the minds of voters. So far, he's been reluctant to do so.
- When Axios recently asked about Feely, Shah blasted Trump for rising gas prices, health care costs and tariffs but didn't mention Feely once.
- Shah will need to emphasize that Feely "is bear-hugging Trump, he's bear-hugging the tariffs, he's bear-hugging the guy that said it's OK to beat up police officers on Capitol Hill," Democratic consultant Matt Grodsky tells Axios. "But if you don't message that effectively, then you still have an advantage for Republicans."
The bottom line: The extent to which Feely is defined by Trump — by himself or his opponent — could swing the election and Congress.