Arizona universities face declining enrollment
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From left: ASU president Michael Crow, UofA president Suresh Garimella and NAU president José Luis Cruz Rivera discuss higher education at a League of Arizona Cities and Towns conference at the Arizona Biltmore on Aug. 20. Photo: Jeremy Duda/Axios
Universities across the U.S. are feeling the pinch from enrollment declines, and Arizona hasn't been immune.
Why it matters: Lower enrollment means fewer graduates for the job market and the loss of a major revenue source that international students bring.
- "We use the revenue from the international students to help pay for the university," ASU president Michael Crow told Axios recently.
- "It's also an export of the United States," he said, noting that the U.S. could lose as many as 40,000 jobs in sectors like housing, restaurants and car sales due to a reduction in international students.
The big picture: All three Arizona universities are expecting decreases in in-person enrollment this semester, to varying degrees.
Arizona State University touted an all-time high in total enrollment this fall with more than 200,000 students, more than 119,000 of whom are enrolled online.
- Yes, but: In-person enrollment is "down a little bit," Crow said, though he didn't say by how much.
- Total on-campus enrollment in fall 2025 was over 78,000, and ASU could see a drop of 1% from that, the Arizona Republic reported.
Zoom in: The drop is due to a decrease in international students, Crow said.
Between the lines: The Trump administration has increasingly restricted student visas and last month enacted a rule limiting the duration of visas for international students.
- Universities across the country are already seeing an effect from the rule, Inside Higher Ed reported last week.
UofA is planning for a 2% drop this fall, per the Republic.
- Total enrollment last fall was over 54,000, according to the university.
- A UofA spokesperson tells Axios that the university will have full numbers for this semester once its fall census is completed.
Northern Arizona University disclosed in May that it expected a drop of more than 2,800 students compared with fall 2025 enrollment, a decrease of more than 10%, but current estimates project a smaller decline, the university's communications department tells Axios.
- The university won't have an official enrollment count until mid-September when it takes its student census.
- NAU president José Luis Cruz Rivera said last week that the decrease will be about 1,000 students fewer than previously expected, per the Arizona Daily Sun.
NAU declined to comment to Axios on possible causes for the drop but pointed to two nationwide trends:
- A decline in traditional college-age students, dubbed the "demographic cliff," attributed to lower birthrates that began around the start of the Great Recession in 2007.
- Federal policy changes — which the school didn't specify — that are "affecting recruitment and enrollment patterns."
And Grand Canyon University is in a similar situation to ASU — a slight drop in in-person enrollment but a record-high overall enrollment due to online students.
- GCU reported on-campus enrollment of 24,671 in fall 2025.
- The university says its on-campus enrollment for this fall is "more than 24,000," and spokesperson Bob Romantic tells Axios that GCU has experienced only a "slight decrease."