New poll shows Hobbs with comfortable lead over Biggs
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Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs. Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photo: Jon Cherry/Getty Images
Gov. Katie Hobbs led Republican challenger Andy Biggs by 8 points in a poll of likely Arizona voters commissioned by the AARP and released Thursday.
Why it matters: The poll, which also showed smaller Democratic advantages in the races for attorney general and control of the state Legislature, offers an intriguing snapshot of the electorate three months out of the general election.
- The Arizona governor's race has been viewed as one of the most closely contested in the nation, with the Democratic Governors Association pledging to spend $10 million to boost Hobbs' re-election campaign.
By the numbers: 52% of likely voters favored Hobbs, versus 44% for Biggs. Hobbs also led among voters under 50 (+36), Hispanic voters (+25) and swing voters over 50 (+5).
- Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes had a 5-point lead over GOP nominee Warren Petersen.
- When considering a generic ballot for the Arizona Legislature, likely voters favored Democrats by 3 points, a 6-point swing compared to a similar poll that AARP conducted in 2024.
Yes, but: The poll was conducted before Biggs announced former state Sen. Sine Kerr as his lieutenant governor pick and before a New York Times report named former Mesa Mayor John Giles as Hobbs' running mate. The Hobbs campaign hasn't confirmed that report.
Between the lines: The poll may give Democrats hope about capturing control of the Legislature — that's been a real Charlie Brown-trying-to-kick-the-football situation that they haven't actually accomplished since 1966.
What they're saying: "There's definitely a shift" toward Democrats, pollster Bob Ward of the GOP polling firm Fabrizio Ward said on a press call. "A lot of that shift has happened in the younger side of the electorate."
- In a statement to Axios, Hobbs campaign spokesperson Michael Beyer wrote, "While this race will remain competitive through the end, Gov. Hobbs is focused on delivering for Arizona."
- Biggs campaign strategist Sean Noble countered that "Arizonans don't care about poll numbers" and said, "Governor Hobbs can try to distract voters, but it won't work."
Petersen campaign manager Chad Lebeau said in a statement that the poll "confirms that Mayes is the most vulnerable incumbent."
- Mayes campaign manager Delaney Corcoran wrote to Axios that voters will "hear a clear contrast" between Mayes and Petersen, whom she called a "career politician who puts greedy corporations and partisan politics ahead of Arizona families."
Zoom in: The poll also highlighted key issues for the electorate:
- Rising prices and "threats to democracy" were top issues for voters of all ages and affiliations, with GOP voters also caring about immigration and border security.
- The biggest affordability issues for respondents were the price of groceries and the cost of health care.
Methodology: The poll used two firms to survey 913 likely voters in the state by phone call and text message from July 26-28. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 points.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from the campaigns of all candidates.