Possible "super El Niño" could bring more rain and cooler temperatures to Arizona

State of play: El Niño conditions occur when surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.

• The National Weather Service characterizes increases of 1.5° to 2° Celsius a "strong" El Niño event and anything above as "very strong" or, as some refer to it, a "super El Niño."
• Current estimates predict a 60% chance of a strong El Niño and 15% to 20% of a very strong event, Ryan Worley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Phoenix office, told Axios.

The intrigue: El Niño events usually bring drier conditions, but the NWS' Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting a wetter-than-normal monsoon season in Arizona due to increased storm activity in the eastern Pacific, per Worley.

• That could cool temperatures as well.
• The wetter and cooler weather could extend into the beginning of 2027, Worley said.

Reality check: Predicting weather conditions so far out is difficult, he told us.

• "It's not a guarantee, unfortunately, but things look … at least more favorable than they have the past few years to see better rainfall across the state during the summer timeframe," he said.

Driving the news: The Climate Prediction Center last week said El Niño conditions are likely to emerge from May to July and persist through the end of the year.

• Conditions would likely peak during winter, Worley said.

Zoom out: A super El Niño wouldn't be as welcome everywhere as it would be here.

• National Geographic reported that the El Niño, which could be the strongest in at least a decade, "may spur punishing drought in some regions and severe storms in others, while also causing the Earth's temperature to rise."
• A strong event could break global heat records next year and lead to a "series of devastating effects," including "supercharged rainstorms" and droughts, per the Guardian.