One year out: Tough re-election looms for Arizona's statewide Democrats
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Three years ago, an unexpected surge allowed Democrats to sweep the top three statewide offices in Arizona for the first time since 1974.
The big picture: With the 2026 election one year away, Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes are staring down tough re-election campaigns in hopes of keeping their seats in Democratic hands.
Reality check: A confluence of circumstances at both the state and national levels led Arizona Democrats to tremendous 2022 success when, by most metrics, the election should've favored Republicans, given the Democratic administration in the White House.
- That means 2022 should be viewed as more of an anomaly than a sign of Democratic ascendance in Arizona, analysts on both sides of the aisle told Axios.
Flashback: The 2022 election saw several unique factors that helped Democrats:
- The U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, issued months before the election, motivated Democratic voters nationwide.
- Far-right GOP nominees in key races contributed to what then-U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell described as a "candidate quality" problem.
- It was the first election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol that disrupted the certification of Joe Biden's Electoral College win.
Between the lines: Last year, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leaned on similar messages about abortion and protecting democracy, but she lost Arizona.
- Nationally and locally, Democrats have conceded that voters had moved on from these issues and were more concerned about the economy, which has led many Democrats to pivot their strategies to address more bread-and-butter economic issues.
The intrigue: It's hard to predict what effect we'll see next year from what's likely to be the biggest factor — voter attitudes toward President Trump.
- "The Trump administration's policies are increasingly bipolar and increasingly detached from what Arizonans are worried about," said Democratic operative Stacy Pearson, citing issues like grocery prices, SNAP benefits and the cost of the upcoming Christmas season. "The economic realities are not painting a pretty picture for the Trump administration."
- Republican lobbyist and consultant Brian Murray said the election will largely hinge on how voters view Trump and the economy, but it remains too early to tell.
Threat level: Even at Arizona's most purple, Republicans had the edge in voter registration, and that margin has doubled in the past three years, a potentially troubling sign for Democratic incumbents who won by narrow margins.
- At the time of the 2022 election, Republicans had about 166,000 more registered voters than Democrats.
- As of the most recent count on Oct. 1, that number was about 333,000.
- There are 658 fewer registered Democrats in the most recent statewide count than on the day of the 2022 general election.
Pearson said the way to counter that is by appealing to independents, "who always made the difference in the outcomes of elections in Arizona."
- There are 142,000 more independents on the voter rolls today than in the 2022 election.
Zoom out: 2026 is a non-presidential year, and for the first time since 2014, Arizona won't have a U.S. Senate race on the ballot, which likely means there'll be less national money coming into the state on both sides of the aisle.