Grocery prices rise, but Phoenix avoids shock
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Grocery prices are on the rise nationally as President Trump's tariffs hit shoppers in their pocketbooks, but metro Phoenix shoppers aren't seeing as much sticker shock.
The big picture: Trump, who spent his 2024 campaign promising to lower grocery prices, has framed his tariffs as a way to protect American workers and lower costs.
- But those same trade barriers can raise input costs — from fertilizer to machinery to transportation — that ripple through food prices.
- Grocery chains, already facing higher wholesale costs, say they're trying to avoid passing the increases to shoppers.
- But virtually all major grocery categories are now more expensive than a year ago.
By the numbers: Broad price increases last month hit key items, including:
- ☕️ Coffee is up 20.9% year-over-year, with a 3.1% monthly increase, per CPI.
- 🥩 Uncooked beef steaks are up 16.6% year-over-year with a 3.3% monthly bump.
- 🥦 While fruits and vegetable overall were up 2.3% year over year, apples rose 9.6% and bananas, 6.6%.
Yes, but: Price increases haven't been as stark in the Valley.
- The Phoenix metro area's CPI increase for all food from August 2024 to August 2025 was 1%, and was 1.5% for food at home.
- Nationally, it was 3.2% for all food and 2.7% for at-home food.
State of play: Retailers including Walmart have said they've had to increase some prices.
- Kroger CFO David Kennerley said Thursday the chain's approach is to "raise prices as a last resort."
- Interim CEO Ron Sargent said they've lowered prices on more than 3,500 products across stores, which is "improving our price spreads against our major competitors."
For the record: A White House official noted the annualized pace of grocery inflation since Trump took office is 1.8%, a low figure that is less than the late Biden era.
- The August data, on its own, does not make a trend, the official added.
Reality check: It's not just tariffs pushing up grocery costs — and of the many factors at play, it's not clear how long some will last.
- "Bad weather, shortages of farm workers and tariffs are potential culprits behind high grocery prices," wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "But grocery prices can be volatile, and it will take time to know how persistent August's spike will be,"
- The White House said last week it would consider lowering tariffs on hundreds of products across sectors, including food, if specific deals can be struck with trading partners.