Dry winter increases threat of dangerous fire season in Arizona
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A drier-than-usual winter could spell trouble for Arizona this wildfire season. Photo: David McNew/Getty Images
Arizona's dry winter is spurring fears that the state could see a particularly fierce wildfire season.
State of play: Phoenix broke a 159-day streak without rain in January, and conditions have been dry throughout the state.
- From much of Arizona through southern California and southern Nevada, the Southwest experienced "some of the driest conditions we've seen," Tom Frieders, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix, told Axios.
Why it matters: Vegetation is expected to dry out earlier than normal due to the "very extreme dryness," state fire management officer John Truett said during a press briefing Monday.
- That means Arizona is looking at a longer-than-usual fire season accompanied by above-average temperature forecasts this summer, per Frieders.
What they're saying: "This is one of the most critical years that we've seen in our careers," he added.
Threat level: Truett and Gov. Katie Hobbs emphasized that most fires are human-caused.
- Truett noted that in one recent incident, sparks from a chain being dragged behind a car caused 18 fires in 20 miles.
- "That tells us that the probability of ignition is way up," he said.
Yes, but: Dry winters are usually followed by more active monsoon seasons, potentially alleviating increased fire activity over the summer, Frieders said.
- Monsoon season begins on June 15 but typically ramps up in July.
Catch up quick: Two years ago, Arizona had a wetter-than-usual winter.
- Last year, the winter was drier, but the state saw rainfall in March and April, helping delay the fire season, Frieders said.
- Truett told Axios that more acreage burned last year than in 2023, but the fires were spread throughout the season, making them more manageable.
- But "whatever didn't burn last year, it's still laying there fairly dry," Frieders said.
Zoom out: The threat of wildfires is always significant in Arizona but is perhaps more ominous this year because of the recent blazes in the Los Angeles area.
- "There is potential here in the Valley," Truett said of the possibility of similar fires hitting urban areas in Arizona. "We have that vegetation growing very close to the outside of the communities."
Between the lines: Despite significant cuts to federal funding to states and local entities, Arizona hasn't lost federal grant money that's already been awarded, according to state forester Tom Torres.
- He emphasized that state officials are in "constant communication" with firefighting partners in other jurisdictions, including the federal government.