Election update: Down-ballot races will determine city control
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
While most of Arizona is focused on top-of-the-ticket races like president and U.S. Senate, some of the biggest action was happening further down the ballot in lower-profile municipal races.
Why it matters: City government often has a far greater effect on people's lives than the president or Congress.
The big picture: There are just over 1 million ballots left to count statewide including about 680,000 in Maricopa County as of Thursday morning, per the Secretary of State's Office.
Zoom in: In the hotly contested Phoenix City Council race for District 7, Anna Hernandez is so far ahead that she may win outright and avoid a runoff election.
- Hernandez, a state senator, had nearly 53% of the vote in the four-way race as of Thursday at 6am, a likely victory for progressive Democrats.
- If no one gets an outright majority, there will be a runoff next March.
- Incumbents Betty Guardado, Debra Stark and Ann O'Brien, who ran unopposed, won their races outright, as did Mayor Kate Gallego.
State of play: There were some shake-ups in other mayoral races around the Valley.
- Lisa Borowsky leads incumbent David Ortega in the Scottsdale mayoral race.
- Former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith is trailing in his comeback bid against Council Member Mark Freeman.
- And Fountain Hills Council Member Gerry Friedel is ahead against incumbent Mayor Ginny Dickey.
The intrigue: Republican Justin Heap declared victory in the county recorder race and said Democrat Timothy Stringham called him to concede and congratulate him Wednesday.
- Stringham wrote on X that he called Heap to "wish him luck on his likely win," but noted many ballots are remaining and the "outcome isn't fixed."
- Heap led by 3.5 percentage points — about 44,000 votes at the time — and is currently up by more than 60,000.
Between the lines: Republican Mark Stewart still leads by nearly 8,000 in the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors race, while Republican Kate Brophy McGee narrowed Democrat Daniel Valenzuela's lead to just over 1,100 in District 3.
- The GOP only needs to win one of the two seats to maintain control of the board.
Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani took the lead over Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel in the southeastern Arizona-based 6th Congressional District, while Republican U.S. Rep. David Schweikert expanded his lead over Democrat Amish Shah to more than 9,000 votes.
In the race for control of the Legislature, Republican challenger Carine Werner took the lead over Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh in Legislative District 4, one of the state's few competitive districts, which could dash Democrats' hopes of winning or at least tying the chamber.
- John McLean still leads in northern Tucson-based Legislative District 17, which would be a pickup for the Democrats.
- All four legislative caucuses plan to meet next Tuesday to vote on leadership for the next two years, which will determine the next Arizona House speaker and state Senate president.
Meanwhile, Republicans lead for all three Corporation Commission seats that were up for election this year, putting them in position to return it to all-GOP control.