Republicans gain and Democrats lag in Arizona early voting returns

We're past the halfway point between the start of early voting and Election Day, and trends so far are looking good for Republicans, suggesting possible trouble ahead for Democrats. 

The big picture: Republicans are returning early ballots in greater numbers than in the past two presidential elections, according to data from consultants Sam Almy, a Democrat, and George Khalaf, a Republican. 

• GOP early ballot returns are up significantly from the same point before the 2020 election, when many in the party turned against early voting over false and baseless allegations about it. 
• Meanwhile, Democratic returns are far below this point four years ago, both in terms of raw numbers and percentage of total early ballot returns. 

Why it matters: A vote counts the same whenever it's cast, but an early ballot is one that campaigns no longer have to worry about, allowing them to focus get-out-the-vote efforts focused on those who haven't cast ballots yet. 

By the numbers: On the 15th day of early voting, Wednesday, here's where the two major parties stood in terms of early ballot returns, according to an analysis by Almy's Uplift Campaigns: 

• 2016: Democrats 304,438 (36.3%), Republicans 326,198 (38.9%)
• 2020: Democrats 535,229 (43.5%), Republicans 413,825 (33.6%)
• 2024: Democrats 363,643 (35.4%), Republicans 431,848 (42.1%)

Zoom out: After back-to-back elections in which Donald Trump and many of his allies demonized early voting, there's a renewed effort to persuade Republicans to vote early. 

• In Arizona, the Trump-aligned conservative advocacy group Turning Point leads a "ballot chasing" operation to boost GOP early voting, while the state Republican Party and U.S. Senate nominee Kari Lake are encouraging voters to cast early ballots. 

Zoom in: In terms of raw numbers, Almy said Republicans aren't that far ahead of where they were four years ago, but they're making up a greater share of early returns as Democrats are lagging. 

Between the lines: The numbers may be worse for Democrats than they seem, according to Khalaf, because much of the GOP turnout so far is from newly registered and lower-efficacy voters, meaning Republicans still have reliable, motivated voters who are effectively guaranteed to cast ballots. 

• Almy said those numbers are "concerning" for Democrats, and he said he hoped the party's voters were simply returning to the pre-2020 pattern of dropping off early ballots on Election Day. 

Yes, but: Khalaf said it's difficult to draw many conclusions yet, and he noted that 2020 was an unusual election because of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

• "I don't think anybody should be in panic mode or celebration mode, but probably not where you'd want to be if you're trying to take back the Legislature," Khalaf told Axios. "Statewide you'd definitely rather be a Republican than Democrat right now." 

Context: Democratic voter registration totals have dropped by about 180,000 since the 2020 election, while Republican registration is down by around 50,000. 

What's next: Most of Maricopa County's in-person early voting centers open Friday, and Tuesday, Oct. 29, is the last day to put your early ballot in the mail to ensure it arrives by Election Day, per county election officials' recommendations. 

• Friday is also the last day to request an early ballot by mail. Early ballots can still be placed in official drop boxes or delivered to polling places through 7pm on Election Day. 

Editors note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Democratic voter registrations have dropped by 180,000 (not 1.8 million).