Experts expect Arizona to again be a battleground over election results in 2024
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In 2020 and 2022, Arizona was ground zero for waves of election litigation and other more creative challenges from former President Trump and his Republican allies. This year, local experts fear more of the same.
The big picture: Arizona is again looking like a critical swing state, and its lengthy ballot-counting process — which fueled some of the baseless claims of voter fraud — hasn't changed.
- In addition, those pushing some of the frivolous lawsuits have not seen sanctions since.
State of play: Election challenges have become a "cottage industry" in Arizona, and that will likely continue if the margins of victory are close, said Republican election attorney Andrew Gould.
- Even if Trump wins Arizona in a tight race, Gould said he expects Democrats to go to court over the results, too.
Between the lines: State courts have been hesitant to impose sanctions against candidates and their attorneys for past unsuccessful lawsuits, and the Arizona Supreme Court overturned one judge's order for sanctions earlier this year.
- Democratic election attorney Jim Barton worries that will embolden candidates and lawyers to file more frivolous lawsuits pending this year's results.
Yes, but: One phenomenon likely to change from 2022 is a willingness by county election boards of supervisors to challenge, delay or refuse certification of election results.
- An Arizona grand jury indicted Republican Cochise County supervisors Tom Crosby and Peggy Judd for refusing to certify results in 2022 until after the statutory deadline.
- Democratic election attorney Andy Gaona said it would be "crazy" to imagine that the threat of indictment won't discourage other county supervisors who are "contemplating playing games."
Zoom out: A major source of contention in recent Arizona elections has been the state's lengthy ballot-counting process, which largely hasn't changed since 2020.
- Results from early ballots mailed before the election are released first, followed by uploads of ballots cast in person on Election Day.
- The last Arizona results released are the early ballots dropped off at polling places. These take days to count due to the need to verify voters' signatures.
Threat level: Because of partisan trends in how people vote, that process sometimes causes lead changes in close races.
- In 2020, Fox News famously called Arizona for now-President Biden on election night, only to see his lead narrow to less than 11,000 over the following week.
- In 2018, several Democratic statewide candidates were trailing on election night but pulled ahead as counties tabulated early ballots delivered on Election Day, which usually favor Democrats.
What we're watching: Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes included a provision in the state's Election Procedures Manual stating that if a county doesn't finish canvassing results by the legal deadline, then statewide elections results will be tallied without them.
- But it's being challenged in court by Republican individuals and groups represented by Gould.
- Gould noted that the omission of a county's results could change the outcome of the presidential election in Arizona, which could change the winner of the Electoral College.