Race to replace Gates on Maricopa County Board of Supervisors expected to be highly competitive
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Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates in October 2022. Photo: Jeremy Duda/Axios
The normally quiet elections for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors could take center stage next year, as Democrats and Republicans expect a hotly contested race for Bill Gates' seat.
State of play: The county recently completed redistricting, and the central and north Phoenix-based District 3 is highly competitive.
- Republicans make up 32% of the district to the Democrats' 31.8%. Independents outnumber both.
Between the lines: Despite the GOP's slim registration advantage, statewide Democratic candidates have fared well there in recent years, according to numbers provided by the Democratic data consulting firm Uplift Campaigns.
- Democrats won the district in last year's races for U.S. Senate, governor, secretary of state, attorney general and superintendent of public instruction; the only statewide race the GOP won in the district was state treasurer.
- The district's voters favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump and Mark Kelly over Martha McSally in 2020, and backed Democrats for U.S. Senate, secretary of state and superintendent in 2018.
- Republicans won the district in the 2018 races for governor, attorney general and treasurer.
Zoom out: The field isn't set yet, but several candidates have already declared or expressed interest in the race.
- Former Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee and attorney Tabatha LaVoie filed to run, and former Phoenix City Council member Sal DiCiccio is strongly considering it.
- Advertising executive Beau Lane, who lost last year's GOP primary for secretary of state, is another Republican who has expressed interest.
- On the Democratic side, ex-Phoenix City Council member Danny Valenzuela tells Axios Phoenix he's running, and John Garcia, a former Phoenix educator who's now a senior adviser at the U.S. Department of Education, is considering it, too.
Flashback: Gates, who faced an avalanche of harassment and threats from people who falsely believe the 2020 and 2022 elections were rigged, and sought treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, decided not to seek another term.
The intrigue: Given the makeup of the district, both parties would be well-served to nominate relatively moderate candidates for the general election, Republican political consultant George Khalaf says.
- Maya Perez, a data strategist with Uplift Campaigns, says the district is winnable for Democrats, and on both sides of the aisle, "I think it really does come down to the candidates."
- Khalaf says Republicans have performed better in down-ballot races, which could aid the GOP nominee.
- Support for baseless election claims has become a litmus test for some Republicans, and Maricopa County experienced legitimate problems with ballot tabulation machines at many polling places in 2022, so election issues could play a prominent role in the GOP primary.
What they're saying: "Anyone who runs on a platform of election denialism is going to have a very hard time keeping that district in the Republican column," GOP political consultant Jon Seaton tells Axios Phoenix.
The big picture: Whoever wins, it likely won't upset the balance of power on the Board of Supervisors.
- Gates' district is probably Democrats' best chance to win a second seat. Uplift's data show Democratic candidates fared equally well in Supervisor Jack Sellers' East Valley-based District 1, though beating an incumbent to win a third seat for a majority will likely be more difficult.
- An election-denying Republican could make a lot of noise on the board. But unless like-minded candidates won some of the other GOP-held seats, they likely won't alter the outcomes of any votes.
Yes, but: Most board votes are unanimous and the supervisors generally display a great deal of comity, so a colleague who didn't share their views could be disruptive.