Nov 9, 2022 - Politics

Arizona's Senate and governor races may take days to call

Illustration of two checkboxes over a divided blue and red background, with a checkmark moving back and forth between them.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Arizona's U.S. Senate race and all of the statewide races are still too close to call.

State of play: As of 6am, Democrat Katie Hobbs leads Republican Kari Lake in the race for governor 50.9% to 49.1%.

  • U.S. Senate: Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly leads Republican Blake Masters 51.9% to 45.9%.
  • Secretary of State: Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Mark Finchem 52.9% to 47.1%.
  • Attorney General: Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Abe Hamadeh 50.6% to 49.4%.

Why it matters: The candidates in these races are diametrically opposed on almost every issue, especially abortion and election integrity.

  • Also, yesterday was a test of former President Trump's ongoing influence in Arizona, as he endorsed each of the Republicans.

What Lake is saying: "It's very early. And if we have to take this fight through, we will. If it takes hours or days, we will," Lake said during a speech at the Arizona Republican Party's election night event in Scottsdale. "We will take the victory when it comes..."

What Hobbs is saying: "We’ve seen the first results come in, and we are feeling good about what we’re seeing!" Hobbs said in remarks issued to the media, while cautioning that it may take a few days before the winner of the race is known.

Congressional races: The races for contested U.S. House seats are also too close to call, but Republican Congressman David Schweikert trailed Democratic challenger Jevin Hodge, 50.9% to 49.1%, while Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton appears headed for re-election with 56.8% of the vote to GOP challenger Kelly Cooper's 43.2%.

  • Republican Eli Crane leads Democratic incumbent Tom O'Halleran 52.6% to 47.4% in their rural northern Arizona-based district.
  • In the open seat for the Tucson-based 6th Congressional District, Democrat Kirsten Engel leads Republican Juan Ciscomani by 0.4 percentage points.

Other races we're watching: Republican incumbent Rachel Mitchell leads Democrat Julie Gunnigle 52% to 48% in the race for Maricopa County attorney.

  • In Phoenix, the District 6 (Arcadia, North Central, Ahwatukee) and District 8 (downtown and south Phoenix) races appear headed for a runoff in March, as no candidate got to 50%.

Ballot propositions: Proposals to protect people with medical debt from creditors and to require the disclosure of the sources of anonymous election spending known as "dark money," both passed with about three-fourths of the vote, the Associated Press reports.

  • Voters also rejected a proposition that would have allowed the legislature to amend or repeal voter-approved laws if other parts had been struck down by the courts.
  • Most of the other 10 propositions on the ballot are still too narrow to call, including proposals to give in-state tuition rates to undocumented immigrants, create a lieutenant governor position and require at least 60% of the vote to pass a tax hike at the ballot.

What's next: The Maricopa County Elections Department and Arizona Secretary of State's office will continue updating results throughout the week.

  • The majority of remaining ballots are mail ballots that were dropped off at the polls yesterday, which are expected to favor Republicans.

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