Tropical system in Gulf of Mexico to bring heavy rain to New Orleans metro

The big picture: The National Hurricane Center says the large disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm by Wednesday.

• It will be named Alberto when that happens.
• Mexico and Texas will get the brunt of the storm, forecasters say. Parts of Houston metro could get up to 8 inches of rain through Thursday.
• The track forecasts landfall in Mexico. A tropical storm watch is in effect for parts of Texas' coast.

Zoom in: Thunderstorms were already hitting New Orleans metro Monday morning.

• Up to 3 inches rain could fall through Wednesday, with the bulk falling Monday, according to Megan Williams, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Slidell.
• Heavier rainfall is expected in western Louisiana.

Threat level: Residents should prepare for flash flooding and minor coastal flooding in New Orleans metro.

• Overall inundations up to 3 feet above ground level are possible during high tide along the coast and in St. Tammany. A coastal flood advisory will be in effect Tuesday and Wednesday.
• Gusty winds up to 35mph also are possible for coastal areas on Tuesday and Wednesday, NWS says.

Meanwhile, NHC forecasters are tracking another system in the Atlantic that's heading toward the East Coast.

• It has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression within seven days.

What's next: The rain is expected to clear out Wednesday.

• By Thursday, forecasters say New Orleans will be back to its regular summer pattern of sunny with a brief afternoon storm possible.

Go deeper

• Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center
• Here's the status of New Orleans' levees and power grid heading into hurricane season
• How to prepare now for hurricane season in New Orleans
• New Orleans plans for resource center in the event of widespread power outages

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the 4pm Monday forecast.