Report predicts below-average hurricane season
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The 2023 hurricane season could see fewer storms than average, according to a new outlook from Colorado State University.
Driving the news: The university published its annual hurricane season forecast Thursday. It calls for 13 named storms, six of them hurricanes and two of them major hurricanes.
- That's fewer than the seasonal average number of storms (14), hurricanes (seven) and major hurricanes (three) that formed from 1991 to 2020.
Yes, but: Expect the predictions to change. "Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook," the CSU report says.
Between the lines: CSU's forecast is one of several professional outlooks published ahead of hurricane season — and it's our first look this year.
- Predictions from AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are expected to come out in the coming weeks.
Our thought bubble: The NOAA issued an El Niño watch Thursday, giving a 62% probability of a shift to an El Niño pattern developing by summer. Typically, El Niño years see fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic due to an increase in upper-level winds that can tear storms apart.
- But El Niño might not have as much of an effect in this region, as water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been running above average by 5 to 8 degrees, according to WeatherBell Analytics.
Dig deeper: El Niño events are characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports. These elevated ocean temperatures affect the location and intensity of tropical showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific.
Flashback: The last strong El Niño formed in 2016, according to The Guardian, when that hurricane season produced 15 storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
What we're watching: Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through the end of November.
The bottom line: "As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," the report read. "They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."