Iowa Democrats hope for a breakthrough in 2026 midterm election
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Republicans dominate Iowa politics right now, but economic dissatisfaction, open seats and an unusually engaged electorate could give Democrats an opening.
Why it matters: Iowa Democrats are hoping the midterm election is their breakthrough moment after a decade of Republicans wielding a statehouse trifecta and holding most of the state's congressional seats.
Flashback: Some pundits may reduce Iowa to a solidly red state, but Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa, says the state has leaned more purple over the past 20 years.
- In 2018, during President Trump's first midterm election, Democrats won each of the state's congressional districts except the historically conservative 4th District.
- Four years later, during former President Biden's midterm, Republicans swept all four seats.
- "Iowa's a swing state, is what I would say," Hoffman says. "Sometimes it is red, sometimes it is more purple."
State of play: With the Nov. 3 election approaching, Democrats are bullish about winning the governor's race and flipping Republican-held congressional seats, Hoffman says.
- Cook Political Report recently moved Iowa's 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts into the "lean Democratic" category, while the open 2nd District is rated a toss-up.
- Cook Political Report also rates the governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn as leaning Democratic.
Hoffman points to some unique dynamics shaping this year's election:
1. Frustration with Republicans: The GOP has controlled Iowa's governorship and Legislature since 2017, while Republicans also hold the White House and Congress.
- That gives voters dissatisfied with the cost of living, fuel prices and other issues a party to blame, Hoffman says.
- "The message may not be as important as just being different," she says.
2. The independent vote: Republicans have a sizable voter registration advantage, making independent voters especially important for Democrats.
- As of Oct. 1, Iowa had about 713,300 active registered Republicans, 533,200 Democrats and 572,200 no-party voters, though it's hard to fairly compare numbers since voter registration laws changed in 2022, she says.
- Dissatisfaction with the status quo and major interest in the governor's race could motivate independent voters who typically skip midterm elections.
3. Bipartisan appeal: In that effort to reach independents, Democrats and Republicans have focused on bipartisanship, Hoffman says. Sand has critiqued the two-party system, while Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek has highlighted his willingness to work across party lines.
- GOP U.S. Senate candidate Ashley Hinson has also distanced herself from Trump.
4. Voter enthusiasm: Hoffman says Trump's lower approval ratings have boosted Iowa Democrats' confidence in their ability to turn out voters.
What we're watching: Whether voter enthusiasm affects down-ballot races, including Iowa's secretary of agriculture contest between Republican Mike Naig and Democrat Chris Jones.