Iowa Senate and governor races shift left
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Democratic Iowa governor nominee Rob Sand (left) and Republican nominee Zach Lahn. Photos: Leon Neal and Scott Olson via Getty Images
Iowa’s 2026 U.S. Senate race is now a toss-up, and the governor’s race is also highly competitive, according to the latest projections from The Cook Political Report.
Why it matters: Iowa’s return to battleground status gives Democrats a rare chance to break the GOP’s statewide grip and reshape the fight for control of the U.S. Senate.
Driving the news: Cook moved the race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" Thursday.
- The matchup pits Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek.
- Cook also shifted Iowa’s governor’s race — where Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand faces Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn — from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat."
State of play: A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide, presidential or U.S. Senate race in Iowa since Barack Obama in 2012.
- But Iowa’s political environment is getting tougher for Republicans as farmers face tariffs, stagnant crop prices and high input costs.
What they’re saying: Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote that Hinson is one of Republicans’ best recruits and is running more competitively than Ernst would have — but that Iowa is a “uniquely challenging” environment for the GOP.
Zoom in: Turek, a Council Bluffs lawmaker and Paralympian, gives Democrats a Senate nominee with western Iowa roots.
- Sand, meanwhile, has made rural outreach central to his campaign and is trying to cut into GOP margins outside the state’s metro areas.
By the numbers: An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, conducted between Aug. 2-4, found Sand leading Lahn by 5 points, 48%-43%, in the governor’s race.
- The same poll showed Hinson narrowly ahead of Turek, 48%-45%, in the Senate race.
- Emerson’s Spencer Kimball said independent voters are helping drive Democrats’ competitiveness.
Reality check: Republicans have a nearly 184,000-voter registration edge over Democrats in Iowa.
The bottom line: Iowa may no longer be a safe red-state afterthought in 2026 — especially if national headwinds and farm-state economic pressures continue to mount.
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