Iowa's job challenges mount as trade risks loom, economists say

State of play: The state shed another 1,500 non-farm jobs in March, losing nearly 12,000 jobs over the past year, according to the latest seasonally adjusted data from Iowa Workforce Development.

• The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.4%, up slightly from 3.3% in February but below the national rate of 4.2% in March.

Zoom in: Trade and transportation, education and health care are the only major sectors posting increases in the state so far in 2025.

• Modest gains in those areas have been offset by losses in professional services and manufacturing, per a review by Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers provided to Axios.

What they're saying: The specter of tariff disruptions hangs over the Iowa economy in the coming months, with the agriculture sector likely to be challenged by reduced international demand for U.S. exports of grains and meats, Ayers said.

• Retaliatory measures from other countries would likely involve reducing imports of agricultural commodities, potentially leading Iowa to face "very large" problems, Iowa State University economist Peter Orazem tells Axios.

The other side: The "Liberation Day" tariffs — a term President Trump used to describe his efforts to create more favorable trading terms for the U.S. — will force trading partners to the table and put farmers first, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds said in an April 2 statement.

• She is working directly with the Trump administration to ease the short-term impact and open the door to new export opportunities, per the statement.

What we're watching: April's jobs report will be released May 15.