3 takeaways from Iowa's 2024 red wave
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Iowa Republicans' decisive victories in the presidential race and at the state Capitol this week will likely lead to a chain reaction, including a reckoning among local Democrats, political analysts tell Axios.
Why it matters: These results will shape the state's future and possibly its national political influence.
Context: This is the second consecutive red wave to hit the state after 2022.
Zoom out: Changes in Iowa Democratic approaches and leadership are likely as local party members recalibrate, Karen Kedrowski, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State, tells Axios.
- The Iowa Democratic Party did not respond to Axios' request for comment.
- In a statement to Axios, state House Democratic Leader Jennifer Konfrst said Tuesday's results were disappointing but her commitment to the people of Iowa is unwavering.
Here are some key takeaways from this week's election:
Deeper red means bigger Democratic challenges
President-elect Trump landed nearly 60% of the Iowa vote.
- Republicans are poised to expand their state legislative majorities from 64 to 67 house seats and 34 to 36 senate seats, per unofficial results.
What they're saying: This will likely make it harder for remaining Iowa Democrats like State Auditor Rob Sand to be reelected in two years, Dave Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University tells Axios.
- "This is another kick in the teeth for Democrats in the state," he said.
Democrats' caucus dreams get hazier
Iowa lost its 50-year streak of having the nation's first-in-the-nation Democratic Caucuses in this election cycle after national party members questioned whether the state's demographics represented the country.
What they're saying: This week's elections further expose the state party's weakness and could influence future nominating calendar discussions, Kedrowski tells Axios.
Yes, but: Iowa Democrats may be able to hold on to some influence if they can stay among the first presidential nominating states.
- "This comes from having lived for 24 years in South Carolina: You don't have to be the first contest to get a lot of love from national and international media and to leave your mark as a small state," Kedrowski said.
Polling reality check
The last Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the election projected Vice President Harris in the lead and Democratic candidates in Iowa's 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts favored by as much as 14 points.
- The far-off projections led Iowa GOP Chairperson Jeff Kaufmann to call the poll a "sham" on Tuesday night and urge newspaper subscribers to cancel their subscriptions.
What they're saying: The Democratic wins projected by the poll may never have been a reality because of who turned out to vote.
- Technology has made polling more complex, making it less sure that the respondents are representative of likely voters, Peterson said.