Iowa's summer caucus chaos
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
Iowa's iconic caucus season is upon us — a time when presidential hopefuls are expected to kiss babies, stop at Pizza Ranch and grill pork tenderloins at the fair.
Why it matters: With big names like former President Donald Trump running, retail politics will be critical this summer for lesser-known candidates trying to stand out, Tim Hagle, political science professor at the University of Iowa, tells Axios.
Driving the news: This summer's swarm of candidates has already come knocking, starting with Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis' first trip back to Iowa yesterday since officially announcing his presidential run last week and Trump’s Fox News town hall tomorrow.
- On Sunday, DeSantis joins a gaggle of potential presidential candidates at U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst's annual Roast & Ride fundraiser, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
The latest: We chatted with several political analysts on the biggest things to look out for on the campaign trail this summer:
🚧 The biggest roadblock for candidates this season: Trump. His name recognition, personality and incumbency puts the former president far ahead of the competition, says Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at the Iowa State University.
- Even with baggage such as recent felony charges, his passionate supporters are still likely to turn out, Schmidt says.
- Expect to see the typical 99-county tour and face-to-face interactions from other candidates.
🚗 🚙 Two roads diverged: For Republicans searching for a Trump alternative, DeSantis is far in the lead as the next front-runner, Schmidt says.
- Still, there are plenty of Republicans and independents who may not regularly follow the news and know little about him, Hagle says.
- DeSantis' big challenge this summer will be convincing Trump-leaning Iowans to caucus for him instead.
👀 What Iowans are looking for: A winner.
- The big question is if Republicans believe Trump can win again or if they want to try a different candidate, Hagle says.
- What they don't want: The "nice guy" approach that Bob Dole, Mitt Romney and John McCain previously brought.
🤝 Does retail politics even matter anymore? Yes, especially since presidential hopefuls don't actually have to win the Iowa Caucus to reap the media attention, Hagle says.
- Just getting one of the "three tickets" — aka, a top three win out of Iowa, is a major publicity boost as candidates venture to other early primary states.