Mass. ballot questions spur $45K in trades
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
Massachusetts' long list of ballot questions became political fodder for traders on prediction markets like Kalshi.
Why it matters: Elections are a spectator sport, and while some users cash in, the biggest winners are the companies behind the platforms.
By the numbers: Users nationwide spent more than $45,000 in trades (aka bets) speculating on the results of Massachusetts' nine ballot questions.
- Even the wonkiest and least controversial questions, like the tax-refund question and land conservation proposals, generated activity on Kalshi, per the company's website.
- That's pennies compared to the tens of millions traded on the midterm races and state elections on Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, Polymarket and other companies.
Friction point: Kalshi, a federally regulated company, is fighting attempts from Massachusetts gaming regulators to impose local betting restrictions in court.
Yes, but: The legal battle hasn't stopped trading on the political horse races in Massachusetts.
Zoom in: As of 2:35pm Tuesday, Kalshi users had traded nearly $26,000 over the likelihood of ballot measures' successes.
- Question 1 (public records): 99%
- Question 2 (collective bargaining for public defenders): 93%
- Question 3 (all-party primaries): 23%
- Question 4 (Election Day registration): 94%
- Question 5 (tax-refund formula): 65%
- Question 6 (nature conservation earmark): 91%
- Question 7 (smaller lot sizes for "starter homes"): 80%
- Question 8 (repealing cannabis sales and home grow): 1%
- Question 9 (preserving the 2024 gun law): 86%.
Eighteen hours later, with 80% of ballots counted, all but one of those predictions (Question 5) were correct.